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 Alabama COVID-19 Forecast  <<Prev    Next>> 
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

oximeters.jpg

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

tempgun.jpg

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

humidifiers.jpg

Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Alabama is stable. 

·         The difference in fatalities between waiting and unlocking is 450, but only for an early vaccine.  If the vaccine isn’t ready until next spring, more people die from a waiting strategy.  This is a combination of near term cases in the summer which don’t seem preventable by social distancing, and a likely rebound in late winter if the vaccine is late.

·         Our previously dire forecast is revised pleasantly.  Alabama partly unlocked on the first of May, which fooled our model into thinking the higher social contact rate was the zero base.  We have updated our algorithm.  Alabama is still dicey this summer, but no more so than Texas.

·         Mortality is extremely low and trending down.

·         There is moderate risk of rebound.  There is a small rebound if they fail to unlock for school on 8/15 to at least the 35% level.

·         Travel risk is moderate for the US in summer, slightly less in winter.

·         IHME seems to think the Alabama case ratio is only about 5.  The scenario would be much worse if so, because of very little immunity building up.  If cases peak and turn down mid-July we are right.  If they keep building, IHME is right.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

·         Paste charts from the Excel model file using ctrl-V.  They will update automatically as long as you have both files open.  A bunch of profiles can be done quickly.

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, Picture (enhanced metafile).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION:  (Paste as HTML from Excel)

 

State           (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓

5/15/20

6/15/20

8/15/20

11/1/20

2/15/21

100%

unlock increment

Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab

start date displacement

Initial & Unlocked R0

Total / Known case ratio

vaccine effect%→    ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘

70%

Vents main region

Season-ality

Population main region

Alabama

5%

5%

20%

35%

100%

MODERATE RECOVERY

5.0%

227

0

2.5

15.0

196,127

12/1/2020

2,623

15%

4,903,185

 

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