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 Argentina COVID-19 Forecast RedAlertFlashing.gif(rapid cases build, overshoot warning, travel warning)    <<Prev    Next>>  Española

 

Probability of getting COVID this summer (their winter) in Argentina is 33-50% depending on which path they take.
If you are at risk there, take responsibility for your own isolation, have someone deliver food.  Or leave the country.

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Argentina is likely stable, but badly in need of an economic boost.

·         The “moderate” plan here is really pretty aggressive.  Our normal moderate had little benefit (though little cost in fatalities either).

·         Cases Argentina will be during our summer, their winter, when the virus is difficult to control and spreads like wildfire.  Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks. 

·         Mortality is trending down faster in Argentina than just about anywhere.  It may be that our model over estimates fatalities here.

·         Cases tend to bunch in winter (their winter), and there is little risk of rebound from early unlock, which is the basis of our economic recovery profile.

·         There is a continuous period of travel risk over the next two seasons only.

·         The cost in fatalities in these three options is negligible.  However, the phasing of economic recovery, which is good in all options, is near term in the MODERATE, and not until year end or later in the SLOW scenarios. 

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, which is really pretty aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.  Argentina is already in the virus high season.  Vaccine is too late for them, like NY and Italy and other hot spots.

 

 

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