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 Arizona COVID-19 Forecast   Rabbit1.gif    <<Prev    Next>> 
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Arizona unlock profile at present is identical to Florida.  Florida case ratio is even higher than Arizona.
This has two sides.  The high level of cases means cases will grow in the short run.
The high level of immunity (from the case ratio) means cases will slow faster than realized.

Florida and Arizona both have low seasonality and will not have issues in the fall.

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

LIKELY UNLOCK PACE – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Arizona is stable. 

·         Fatalities in Arizona are lower than expected from early data.  They could be reduced by a full lockdown, but looks like that’s not a possibility. 

·         Economic recovery is moderate to good.

·         There is small risk of rebound.  The risk is an immediate “bound.”  We are assuming a spontaneous exercise of caution by the public.  The governor is not going to issue any new stay-at-home order, see article.

·         Travel risk is moderate to high for the US in summer, about like Texas where I live, and dropping thereafter.

·         IHME seems to think a fall disaster awaits Arizona.  This is not going to happen.  Test positivity data indicate a case ratio in Arizona of around 20, meaning a higher level of immunity already existing than IHME is realizing.

·         Observed:  FAST RECOVERY.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

·         Paste charts from the Excel model file using ctrl-V.  They will update automatically as long as you have both files open.  A bunch of profiles can be done quickly.

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, Picture (enhanced metafile).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

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