LogoSmall.jpg Arkansas COVID-19 Forecast  (a choice to make)  <<Prev -  Next>>
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

world turning 2.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

oximeters.jpg

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

tempgun.jpg

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

humidifiers.jpg

Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Arkansas protests consist of closing Walmarts.  Really?  Brilliant.  They have a serious problem with a near term peak coming, and closing stores will delay it.  Somehow I’m not worried about Arkansas stability after reading that. 

·         In spite of summer, cases are building.  See IHME dire prediction at left.  That’s what we get too if we model a 15-20% unlock.  We decided to be contrarian and give Arkansas a choice.  5% near term unlock, then a big unlock for in-person school, which they are planning.  Cuts deaths about in half as opposed to fast unlock but still has great economic gain.

·         If a vaccine arrives Dec. 1, Arkansas will not have a winter problem.  With a delayed vaccine, big rebound.

·         Mortality remains higher than it should be and trending . . . higher?  Better get that under control.  Our modeling does not reflect the higher trend.  That should be correctable.

·         Travel risk is moderate in summer, low otherwise.

·         IHME projection peaks in September when they are back to school.  If Arkansas adopts our plan, they’ll peak much sooner and be fine in September.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, BUT, staying in a 5% unlock mode until mid-August, if they can stand it.  Otherwise . . . there is the IHME prediction.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION:  (Paste as HTML from Excel)

State           (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓

5/15/20

6/15/20

8/15/20

12/1/20

3/1/21

100%

unlock increment

Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab

start date displacement

Initial & Unlocked R0

Total / Known case ratio

vaccine effect%→    ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘

70%

Vents main region

Season-ality

Population main region

Arkansas

0%

5%

25%

35%

80%

MODERATE RECOVERY

5.0%

230

0

2.5

15.0

120,712

12/1/2020

1,615

20%

3,017,804

 

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