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Bangladesh COVID-19 Forecast <<Prev Next>> বাংলা

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY POPULATION Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

SUMMARY

 

         Bangladesh stability is unknown to us.

         The difference in fatalities is not large compared to the size of the country.

         Mortality is low. There is no particular trend.

         Cases in the moderate unlock will be spread out over time. Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks.

         Unlocking because cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see above left) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock.

         There is a continuous period of moderate travel risk over the next three seasons.

         Recommendation: A tough call, but we suggest MODERATE RECOVERY is the least exposed to long term risks and practical vaccine schedules.

 

 

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