LogoSmall.jpgBrazil COVID-19 Forecast   Brazil.gif      <<Prev    Next>>     

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)


IHME PROJECTION

  

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Brazil is subject to high level political infighting.  The president might be removed at any time.  Several recently have been. 

Brazil high season is now.  Their summer break will be in December-February, though seasonality there is mild.

Mortality is too high but trending down.

Brazil is still in the process of slowly locking down.  This makes certain numbers in our model negative because we do not yet have a zero unlock baseline.

Highest travel risk is this summer.  We believe Brazil will get locked down and cases will taper

Comparison to IHME projection at right is, well, we disagree.  IHME is not taking into account the continued decline in transmission rate.  See R0 chart above left.

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  Brazil is limited in how much it can unlock this summer, maybe 5% in late July.  But in the fall it can ease up when everyone else is tightening.

 

 

 

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