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 California COVID-19 Forecast   <<Prev -  Next>> 
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California seems to be locked down so tight they run the risk of a homeless epidemic,
or if there are protests then a serious outbreak with overshoot and unnecessary deaths. 
If you think lockdown can’t produce hunger, homelessness and desperation in a liberal state,
then why was George Floyd passing a counterfeit $20?

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

world turning 2.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY  - POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

oximeters.jpg

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

tempgun.jpg

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

humidifiers.jpg

Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         California is likely stable.  But if there is an economic catastrophe? 

·         California is locked so tight a rebound is inevitable, even in the early vaccine scenario, and deaths are greater than our very modest (tailored for Californians) scenario.  No wonder Elon Musk was frustrated with them. What this really means is that California will stay locked down and suffer an economic catastrophe (rather than a rebound).

·         A series of very small steps leaves California nearly locked down, deaths lower, but also nearly rebound-proof IF there is an EARLY vaccine.

·         Mortality is trending down rapidly.  Our low recommended caseload postpones most cases until treatment is better.

·         If the vaccine is late, 75% of Californians get COVID.

·         Travel risk is modest in summer and fall, improving in winter in our scenario (rebounding otherwise!).

·         IHME projection at left seems to correspond to our SLOW and remain locked profile.  This has high economic costs over MODERATE, or if it leads to an unstable and unplanned unlock (protests, for example) could cost lives.  We have learned the US is *not* protest-proof.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION:  (Paste as HTML from Excel)

State           (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓

5/15/20

6/1/20

7/1/20

8/1/20

4/1/21

100%

unlock increment

Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab

start date displacement

Initial & Unlocked R0

Total / Known case ratio

vaccine effect%→    ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘

70%

Vents main region

Season-ality

Population main region

California

5%

5%

10%

15%

100%

MODERATE RECOVERY

5.0%

231

0

2.5

15.0

1,580,489

12/1/2020

21,141

15%

39,512,223

 

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