LogoSmall.jpgChina COVID-19 Forecast   dragon.gif      <<Prev    Next>>     

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

China’s mortality trend is invalid due to inconsistent data

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)


IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

 

 

Not Available!

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

China is completely stable.  It is a one party state with a population that seems to like it that way with very few exceptions. 

China must stay locked down longer than other countries.  They did not let enough cases build to have any kind of immunity.  It is an example of success breeds failure.  To get China to work at all we had to postulate 50% faster vaccination than other countries (which might be realistic).

China’s seasonality is moderate as the country extends over a large north-south range.  It cannot unlock more than 30% in summer without a rebound.  We are seeing local re-locks in the news in mid June.

Mortality is basically unknown due to unreliable and/or inconsistent data.  Death estimates are guesses based on other countries’ rates.

A rise in cases in the fall is inevitable.  We assume a fall relock will be used to prevent exceeding previous high case loads.  It’s best if the country understands this early and expects it.  I think it does.

There is little travel risk now or in the fall, except that you might get locked down locally and unable to leave.  There is some but not large travel risk after that into the summer of 2021.  China cannot unlock fully even with vaccination until fall of 2021.

Comparison to IHME projection at right is, well, IHME won’t touch China.  Guess we got them beat.

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  Economically it’s pretty austere.  But cases will grow alarmingly.  At least at a rate that will alarm the Chinese.  It would be ignored by some countries.  If China stays fully locked down, and is able to vaccinate starting in December at the higher rate we postulate, they could have very few additional deaths.  We don’t think they can economically tolerate it.  If a vaccine is not available in December, they are totally screwed with this approach.  The moderate approach seems to be what they are doing and we are confident in this projection.  They have models too.  I suspect they know all this information.

 

 

 

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