LogoSmall.jpgColumbia COVID-19 Forecast         <<Prev    Next>>     

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

TRANSMISSION RATE (R0)

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)


IHME PROJECTION

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Colombia is likely stable.

Mortality is trending normally.  In fact going down faster than most. 

Colombia has little seasonality factor which makes them compare unfavorable to northern hemisphere countries currently getting a break from summer.

Without seasonal perturbation what happens in Columbia is completely up to Colombians.

There is high travel risk now but it will decline by late fall and not rise again.

IHME projection at left does not seem to go past summer provides no projection for fall.  However, it agrees with our projection as far as it goes.

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  Colombia never entered a controlled lockdown phase with R0 below 1.0.  With the transmission rate rising, likely due to economic pressure (people have to eat – it belies the urgency to call it “economic pressure”), there is going to be a strong cases peak in August.

It might be possible to throttle this peak, but we explored many such scenarios and they are all terrible.  We strongly recommend Colombia stay the natural course.  It is both minimum deaths and maximum recovery.  If you are from Colombia and would like help understanding this, you may write us.

 

 

 

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