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 Colorado COVID-19 Forecast   SkiAccident.jpg   <<Prev -  Next>> 
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY - POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

oximeters.jpg

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

tempgun.jpg

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

humidifiers.jpg

Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

(click for updated version)

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Colorado is stable. 

·         The difference in fatalities between waiting and unlocking is moderate.  Colorado is being too conservative and not unlocking enough.  It is possible to recover 40% of the potential economic loss of a year of lockdown, being fully open in the summer, ski season starting 2/15.  However, they are not headed in that direction.  If the summer tourists come and unlock them (our assumption) then they still might open for skiing on 2/15.

·         We chose an unlock profile that preserves relatively low risk to travelers in the summer.  However, our previous idea that they might pay a price in the fall and then open for ski season was dubious.  However, Colorado’s test positivity is 3.2%.  Combined with current cases and population, the case ratio is high, about 30, so Colorado has higher immunity already than our previous analysis, and things are a little easier to manage.

·         Mortality is moderately high and not trending down fast enough.

·         There is moderate risk of rebound.  Because of seasonality, it is easy to keep cases down in the summer.  Colorado experiences a major rebound in winter even in the early waiting-vaccine scenario.  If the vaccine is late, 80% of Coloradans get COVID.

·         IHME projection at left is consistent with our moderate recovery profile, low summer infections, turning up in the fall.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, with a partial relock in the fall so that weather-related cases do not happen all at once and induce overshoot.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION:  (Paste as HTML from Excel)

State           (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓

5/15/20

6/1/20

7/1/20

9/1/20

2/15/21

100%

unlock increment

Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab

start date displacement

Initial & Unlocked R0

Total / Known case ratio

vaccine effect%→    ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘

70%

Vents main region

Season-ality

Population main region

Colorado

5%

0%

50%

35%

100%

MODERATE RECOVERY

5.0%

232

0

2.5

20.0

230,349

12/1/2020

3,081

25%

5,758,736

 

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