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 Czech Republic COVID-19 Forecast     <<Prev    Next>> 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE R0

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

MOST LIKELY UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

Detailed view of most likely unlock

 

 

 

 

FAST RECOVERY OPTION

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Czech Republic appears to be stable.

·         The “moderate” plan here is extremely aggressive.  It acknowledges the unlock they have already shown, and proposes a brief re-lock to control a near term peak, then resuming essentially a fast unlock, not so moderate.

·         Seasonality and a very successful lockdown have nearly extinguished cases.  However, most of the population remains susceptible.  What we believe is going to happen is shown in the second row above.  You can see why they think they are out of it and recently threw a goodbye party to COVID.  They are going to be surprised.  However, mortality is low, it’s probably OK for them to have a burst and get it over with.  The overshoot isn’t terrible, only about 5% over the herd immunity threshold, maybe 800 extra deaths.

·         Mortality is low and trending down.

·         There is a continuous period of travel risk over the next three seasons.  But no worse than here in Texas.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, which is really pretty aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.  But FAST is a viable option if they tolerate overload of their medical facilities and 800 deaths.

Residents dine at a long table set on the Charles Bridge

Czech Republic Farewell to COVID Party

 

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