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 Florida COVID-19 Forecast  Rabbit1.gif   <<Prev -  Next>> 
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Florida unlock profile at present is identical to Arizona.  Florida case ratio is even higher than Arizona.
This has two sides.  The high level of cases means cases will grow in the short run.
The high level of immunity (from the case ratio) means cases will slow faster than realized.

Florida and Arizona both have low seasonality and will not have issues in the fall.

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY - POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

UNLOCK PACE – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

·         This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Florida is stable. 

·         Mortality is not high but trending up. Someone needs to look into this.  Perhaps it is not a good place to seek treatment.

·         Florida will have a near term peak.  Its profile is at the moment identical to Arizona.  We think citizens will exercise caution, reducing social contact.  Florida also has more local restrictions, see article.  Whether it is local governments or otherwise, it is citizens exercising caution.  Local governments are citizens.  (I’m not sure what state governments are, but they don’t strike me as citizens.  They are more political and ideological.)

·         Travel risk is moderate to high through summer, gradually declining in fall.  About like Texas.

·         IHME projection at left is a plot of deaths in 3 scenarios.  This is a different part of the IHME forecast than we show on other profiles.  It is interesting because it predicts 15,393 deaths in “current projection scenario”.  But which is that?

We predict only 6988 deaths, 55% less, in total to the end of the epidemic, and that’s likely on the high side.  Our prediction is sensitive to case ratio which we believe is high in Florida,
see article, test positivity around 5% which with current cases and population implies case ratio of 30 – we were hesitant to use that number and simulated with a more conservative 25.  But we are not sensitive to masks.  The data and unlock prediction are a prediction for total contact rate including the use of masks or not.  I’ll tell you what.  Masks will be used.  People that don’t use them will get sick and be unable to go out, their friends will die and maybe they will die, and they will put on masks eventually.

Well, I got sidetracked.  What I meant to say is, looks like someone shaded the IHME prediction toward the pessimistic side.  They may have some rationale for doing that.  And, it may be political, whether they admit it or not.

·         Observation:  FAST RECOVERY.

 

Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye meetings.  If you have an old webcam like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved.  Both sound and picture are much better.

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The better webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock!  I have a Logitec that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer.  Are their any decent webcams for less?  I looked at a bunch under $40.  Most have some problem if you read the reviews closely.  This was the only one I saw without a big negative in the reviews.  I ordered one, and will post back here the results

Under $40 webcam with good reviews, 1080p, 30 fps (not for gaming)

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

 

 

 

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