Harris County is having
the largest case spike in Texas by a substantial margin.
But is it actually at risk of getting out of control? Is it deadly?
The fixation on case data without insight into where it will turn and the mortality rate is itself risky.
Harris County seems OK for now but is at more risk of too much lock than unlock. Economic recovery is poor.
Things you might need
Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order:
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)
If R0 is above 1.0 infection grows
CASES ARE COMING INTO THE RANGE WE PROJECTED!
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Chance of Dying
Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:
Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.
UNLOCK PROFILE – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
10% variation in unlock shown, green for more relock, red for more unlock
Notice that more relock in Houston creates problems next spring
Death estimates for each scenario highlighted
Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:
This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)
Texas Medical Center Data
Worldometers Data 7/1/20
· Harris County seems to be stable. There are not massive demonstrations.
· A RELOCK following an optimistic unlock is clearly in evidence in recent data. It appears to be successful in capping the active cases about at present levels.
· Harris County transmission rate only dropped below 1.0 briefly and marginally, not consistently. It averaged about 1.1 since mid-May, and jumped wildly in mid-June, in some cases back to the mid-March levels before full implementation of lockdown.
· Test positivity is running around 9% implying a case ratio of 15.
· Mortality is low. It is mind boggling to compare the low number of deaths (see chart at left) with an area like NY (state). Harris Co. has one 1/5th the population and 1/3rd the mortality rate and around 2 times the case ratio. There have been 14.3 times more cases in NY but with the lower case ratio only 7 times the percentage of cases. That would suggest a factor of 5*3*7=105 times lower deaths. But it is only 87 times lower (currently 361 vs. 31,447), so not as mysterious as it looks.
· Economic recovery is poor. The current death total is about equal to the annual Harris County traffic fatality deaths (360). The county is not shut down because of traffic deaths. Eventual deaths will be more, but nothing that justifies putting 300,000 people out of work for a year, endangering their housing, health, retirement, etc.
· Lockdown is very inefficient. For every case one postpones to the vaccine period, we still get more than one case at that time, even with vaccination!
· Travel risk is moderately high in summer and again next spring. However, death risk is the lowest we have seen anywhere.
· Texas medical center says ICU occupancy is about normal. We have the capacity for many more cases.
· Observed Profile: MODERATE TURNING SLOW RECOVERY. Poor economic recovery. Compare Houston / Harris County to Texas. Very different approach. Why do we display moderate recovery in red? Because more people not less are likely to die, and economic recovery is alarmingly bad.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
· Download the template files using link on the main page. Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
· Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with associated files.
o Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG.
o Type country or state name in the World-likely tab. Data is automatically loaded.
o Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab. Other tabs will copy what they need.
o Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
o Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.
o Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
· Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.
· Change the country or state name at the top of the page.
· If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
· Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.
· End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.
· Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below. Paste Special as HTML.
· If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.