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Lebanon COVID-19 Forecast <<Prev Next>>

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

SLOW RECOVERY, April 2021 VACCINE:

 

 

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

(Lebanon R0 goes below prior baseline locked rate, i.e. negative, thus extra cost red bar)

 

SEASONALITY POPULATION Risk of Dying

 

 

 

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY, MODERATE RECOVERY:

 

 

Lebanon economic protests, BBC

"I just want a job so I can live. protestor, June 2020

 

 

SUMMARY

 

         Lebanon may destabilize if the slow path is taken. See at left.

         The difference between MODERATE and SLOW recovery in fatalities is 1400 people. More would likely be killed due to instability.

         The Lebanese government is following a strict lockdown. This will kill 300 more than moderate if vaccine is late.

         Recommended MODERATE requires aggressive easing followed by a re-lock. Risky strategy justified by volatility of the region.

         If Lebanon unlocks because cases appear to have disappeared, a significant rebound could occur (see late vaccine chart) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock.

 

 

 

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