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 Mexico COVID-19 Forecast       <<Prev    Next>>         Española

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

FOR MODERATE RECOVERY:

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying (HIGH)

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Mexico is troubled by cartels and even some revolutionaries.  We don’t have enough information to assess its stability.

·         Mexico mortality is way too high but trending down somewhat.  We assume it will improve in a way similar to other nations.  If not, our estimates are low by a factor of 3.

·         Cases in the moderate unlock will be spread out over time.  Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks. 

·         Unlocking because cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see above vaccine cases).  200,000 excess deaths if no vaccine until April 2021.

·         There is a continuous period of travel risk over the next three seasons.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, justified by the lack of a guarantee of a December vaccine.  See recovery potential chart.  Mexico is at great risk if it takes the vaccine path, but a vaccine is not available until April 2021.  And there is substantial recovery from the MODERATE scenario.  However, we caveat this recommendation with the following:  Mexico should get its mortality improved before venturing on the moderate path.

 

 

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