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 New York COVID-19 Forecast    <<Prev -  Next>> 
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

Wow, what a change!  NY is not the financial capital for nothing!

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

IHME PROJECTION

 

 

 

SUMMARY

NY forecast has changed significantly

·         New York is stable.

·         Seasonality (summer) and a compliant population HAD New York locked down very tight.  The last couple of weeks it has opened as much as the red states.  Cases will slowly rise from now through October 1, but will not reach prior levels.

·         Due to the current easing which reduces the susceptible population, a re-lock next winter is no longer necessary.  Way to go NY!

·         Mortality remains higher than it should be and trending down slower than some other locations.  But the updated trend is holding solid.  See chart.  This greatly reduces future expected deaths.

·         New York has a rebound risk if the vaccine is next year rather than late this year.  But not nearly as much as previously thought.

·         Travel risk is moderate this summer.  NY no longer has a reason to restrict travel as it is doing.  It is generating cases at the same rate as most travel states.

·         IHME projection at left overlooks the recent unlock and case rise through October.  It is a rosy scenario if I ever saw one.  Somebody get some coffee over there and get back at it.

·         Recommendation/Observation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, which we didn’t believe was in the cards, but New Yorkers have just ignored their politicians and taken matters into their own hands.  Self-governance at its finest.  I mean that sincerely.  Gives me goose bumps to think New Yorkers can do that.  Maybe there is some hope for the country.

 

 

 

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION:  (Paste as HTML from Excel)

State           (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓

5/15/20

6/15/20

8/15/20

12/30/20

5/1/21

100%

unlock increment

Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab

start date displacement

Initial & Unlocked R0

Total / Known case ratio

vaccine effect%→    ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘

70%

Vents main region

Season-ality

Population main region

New York

10%

25%

25%

20%

80%

MODERATE RECOVERY

5.0%

260

0

2.5

10.0

778,142

12/1/2020

10,408

30%

19,453,561

 

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