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 Nigeria COVID-19 Forecast     <<Prev    Next>> 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE R0

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

FAST UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

FAST RECOVERY OPTION

 

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Nigeria appears to be stable.

·         The “moderate” plan here is really pretty aggressive.  It reduces death by about half compared to unregulated recovery, and provides modest economic recovery (comparable to western nations, Russia, etc.).

·         Without seasonality Nigeria gets no summer break.  Transmission rate hovers just at or just above 1.0.  With ANY easing, they get a nasty peak in the next few months.

·         Mortality is trending down fast in Nigeria but recently tapered off.  We are now much more confident in long term mortality estimates.

·         There is a continuous period of travel risk over the next two seasons.  But no worse than here in Texas.

·         The cost in fatalities of either MODERATE or FAST option is less than the unregulated option, or the full lockdown option and suddenly releasing next year.  But there is a fair amount of difference between MODERATE and FAST.  For most countries we don’t present a FAST option.  The seasonal countries really can’t unlock enough for fast in the summer, and it is tricky.  Nigeria has that option if they wish it.  Our fast option attempts to keep a mostly level case load for several months.  The timing of this can be adjusted so that they are ready for it with supplies.

·         Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY, which is really pretty aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.  But FAST is a viable option.

·         RISK IDENTIFIED:  Nigeria should be unlocking more for the next step.  See R0 chart.  Failure to do so pushes cases into the future and causes the various green peaks in the above charts, even after vaccination begins.  That leads to more not less deaths.  People have to eat.

 

 

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