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Pakistan COVID-19 Forecast <<Prev Next>>

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

 

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

 

SUMMARY

 

         Pakistan will probably destabilize if the slow path is taken.

         The difference in fatalities is negligible.

         Pakistan mortality is low. The puzzling uptick may be due to data reporting issues (our method just compares deaths to week-earlier cases).

         Most cases in the moderate unlock will occur in fall when mortality is lower.

         Unlocking because cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see above left) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock.

         Late summer to early fall is the high risk travel period.

         Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY

 

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