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Paraguay COVID-19 Forecast†††††††† <<Prev††† Next>>

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK Ė deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

POPULATION††† SEASONALITY

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

SUMMARY

 

         Paraguay is likely stable.

         The difference in fatalities between waiting and unlocking is zero.The epidemic here is not easily controllable.However, immediate full unlock would produce a large overshoot which is not reflected in the economy chart and we donít recommend it.

         Cases in the moderate unlock will be during our summer.Paraguay is probably not heavily seasonal, but it is their winter.

         Mortality is extremely low and trending down.

         There is little risk of rebound from early unlock, which is the basis of our economic recovery profile.

         Travel risk is mostly in our summer (July, August, early September).

         Recommendation:MODERATE RECOVERY, which is really pretty aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.Vaccine is too late for them, like NY and Italy and other hot spots.

 

 

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