LogoSmall.jpgRussia COVID-19 Forecast   Russia.gif      <<Prev    Next>>     

 

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

TRANSMISSION RATE (R0)

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

 

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)


IHME PROJECTION

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Russia is extremely stable.

Mortality is trending normally and is very low.  The numbers aren’t trusted, but are likely to be close.  It is not possible to hide large numbers of deaths.  My wife has relatives in Russia and is in close communication with them.

Russia has perhaps the highest seasonality factor in the world which has dictated their severe lockdown strategy.

During the summer Russia should unlock and obtain some economic recovery.  Their transmission rate is highly controlled.  Whether they will follow our recommendation we do not know.  It is a tossup right now.

There is small travel risk now becoming moderate fall.  However, it is not as bad as Texas where I live.

IHME projection at left does not seem to go past summer and spreads out quickly to “unknown” meaning they have no clue.

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  For Russia, given strong seasonality, this is not as moderate as some countries.  However, the profile we suggest gives as much economic recovery as the US with one of the smallest risks of dying in the world.

Russia is going all out to develop and deploy several vaccines.  They are treating it like a major national project and are likely to take chances other countries will not.  I think they will be successful.  I might be biased.  I admire Russians so much that I married one.  ; )

 

 

 

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