This chart shows the transmission rate.  Russia locked down forcefully (probably similar to China) and the low point of R0 occurs after our universal lock date of May 15.  To match their actual we have to postulate 10% additional lockdown (negative 10%) on that date.  Then on June 1 they have a 5% unlock (15% up from their low).

This chart shows the mortality trend.  It possibly reflects data being concealed during April, then added to totals in May and June, which is at least somewhat acknowledged.  Russia, at least the politicians, are gripped by fear, unable to be honest about people dying.

This is the slow-recovery option, putting off cases as long as possible by maintaining the current status quo.  This case was difficult to construct without a big rebound in winter or spring.  It will be equallty difficult to execute, and I do not think the Russian public expects to remain so tightly locked in the summer.  There will be few cases, and no support for it.

This is the moderate-recovery option.  It provides nearly 30% economic claw back over full lockdown, which is huge.  5,000 people will die to pay for it.  If Russia could grasp the concept of making this voluntary it would work.  But I wouldn't bet on it.  Putin will see political instability and clamp down earlier than the 11/1 date in this scenario.  But it will not work according to our model.  The peak in December will either occur, or be pushed into 2021 in spite of heavy vaccination.  It's possible to do better with a later re-lock in the fall, but I do not think the government will tolerate the cases peak.  This is the first profile I've done that requires significant re-lock.

Open with Dyske's online interactive model.

This is the fast-recovery option and will have more people getting sick, but also more people keeping their retirement savings, jobs and small businesses, and everything is over at an earlier date.  Penalties change only slightly from moderate option.  This is the best option.

This chart is a comparison of economic recovery (on a scale of a percent of one year lockdown costs, green bars) and cost of the pandemic in direct deaths* (as a percent of the highest case, dark bars).  

In Russia, MODERATE recovery is only slightly better than SLOW, but does provide some economic relief.  By getting a substantial number of cases out of the way and building immunity, they will attempt to deal with the severe vulnerability come winter using an aggressive vaccine strategy.  They have two in human trials now, and I expect them to say hell's bells and administer the vaccine to the public starting in September.  It's like the space race to them.  They almost won the spacr race.  Their high risk N1 rocket blew up.  They are again tacking such a risk.  Might work this time.

* Deaths scale inverse to case ratio.  Case ratio is not well known.  Calculations assume 15.

SUMMARY:  Russia has a high seasonal factor.  They will have few cases this summer, and most will be pushed into fall and winter when the case rate is difficult to control because of the high transmission rate of the virus at that lattitude.

Russia, and possibly other far-north countries, will have to have some degree of relock, or will have to make aggressive efforts to keep some cases going in the summer.  Or, well, pull out a miracle early vaccine or cure.  See tradeoff chart at right for additional discussion.

Russia has done well at preventing deaths during the past winter (some say they are lying about it).  Now we get to see whether it was just reactionary, or whether they can actively manage this pandemic across seasons. 

This profile illustrates that one function of a model is to allow you to see clearly the choices a government has, and follow the action with more understanding of the invisible obstacles they are swerving around.  Following an epidemic without a set of model predictions for different cases is like watching a soccer game with moving goals that you can't see.

How is your country doing?  (or any country you are interested in)   Is their response effective?  Are you in agreement with it?  Take our Coronavirus Country Response Satisfaction Survey, just take a couple minutes, one page, using Survey Monkey.  Thanks for your feedback!

(No contact information will be collected, only general regional information about where responses come from.  If you want to contact us, use the contact link on the home page).