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 Spain COVID-19 Forecast     Spain.jpg     <<Prev    Next>>

 

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

 

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

 

SLOW RECOVERY, April 2021 VACCINE:

 

 

 

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

 

 

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Risk of Dying

 

 

 

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY, MODERATE RECOVERY:

 

 

Mid-June protests in Barcelona, The Independent

 

SUMMARY

 

·         Spain is stable, but Catalonia is still agitating for independence, see at left.

·         The difference between MODERATE and SLOW recovery in fatalities is far less than model noise.  Basically zero. 

·         The Spanish government is following a strict lockdown.  At the urging of the EU they’ve opened some internal borders as of June 15th.  We don’t have data on this yet.  If a vaccine is delayed until April, they could increase their death toll 60% due to overshoot.  Some easing is needed.

·         MODERATE scenario is a classic stair step.  No down side.  While there will be more cases this winter, fewer will be critical.

·         Some may object to our aggressive assumption cases will be easier to treat if we wait.  But without that assumption, there is no motivation to wait.  Vaccine’s simply aren’t going to arrive soon enough to prevent a catastrophe and everyone should immediately proceed to herd immunity.  (avoiding overshoot)

 

 

 

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