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 Texas COVID-19 Forecast   Rabbit1.gif   <<Prev -  Next>> 
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Texas is now in the FAST RECOVERY category, 30% chance of getting sick this summer, but whopping economic recovery.
See alternative possible return to MODERATE below left.

 

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

 

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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

 

 

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

R0 is slightly above 1.0 so infection grows slowly

 

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

 

SEASONALITY – POPULATION – Chance of Dying

 

TRAVEL ADVISORY

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

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These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

 

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

 

 

MORTALITY TREND

 

 

 

FAST PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)

 

 

 

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

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Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

 

 

MODERATE UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)

Trying to quash the near term peak and still have school in fall is not a good plan.

 

SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)

 

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.

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Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

 

Texas Medical Center Data

 

 

 

SUMMARY

Change [again] in our Texas Forecast

·         Texas is stable.  There were a few protest marches in Houston, but no large uptick in cases, which had already gone above R0=1.0 due to easing.

·         Texas transmission rate only dropped below 1.0 briefly, then resumed the course of slow-rapid case build.  Texas has unlocked, with help from seasonality, but cases are building.

·         Case build did not remain slow.  Texas is kind of between MODERATE and FAST recovery.

·         Mortality is low and the trend is down. 

·         Economic recovery is better in the moderate scenario, but note that it depends somewhat on a fall vaccine.  Economic recovery is excellent in the FAST recovery, but still depends on December vaccine.

·         Texas is subject to rebounds, but they are not strong and can be managed.  However, near term peak has gone beyond management.  It doesn’t seem to be destined to overshoot, so probably just let it go.

·         Travel risk is high in summer and lower in fall, then rebounding in winter.

·         IHME projection seems to have not been updated to reflect the recent fast rise.  It is replaced by the Texas Medical Center data, not a projection, but shows recent return to exponential case growth..

·         Observed Profile:  MODERATE RECOVERY. which is happening, apparently, by the collective actions of the population and government, not dominated by any one factor.  The reason can be taken as the extremely high economic recovery, or the obstinacy of Texans, however you’d like to put it.  We believe Texas is tolerant of some case growth.  This will get out of hand over the next two weeks.  Whether Texas reacts or not, we do not know.  We have projected holding the current level of social and business activity.  This is likely for political reasons, as Texas is largely republican.  Houston proper could be an exception, but not too likely in the suburbs.

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

·         Download the template files using link on the main page.  Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

·         Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word.  Select View as WEB LAYOUT.  When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm.  This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o   Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG. 

o   Type country or state name in the World-likely tab.  Data is automatically loaded.

o   Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab.  Other tabs will copy what they need.

o   Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o   Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o   Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

·         Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG).  These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

·         Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

·         If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

·         Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries.  Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

·         End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

·         Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below.  Paste Special as HTML.

·         If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

 

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