you might need
Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:
Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.
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Countries * US_States * US_Scenarios_Animation * Texas_Animation * Mortality_Trend * Useful_Articles * School_Methods * Vaccines * Treatment
There is a minimum deaths unlock profile for northern hemisphere countries which is NOT the most locked condition.
Neither is it the most unlocked. It is in between, and provides moderate economic relief. The most locked postpones immunity until even a vaccine cannot handle it unless you stay locked well into summer of 2021. I'm gradually revising all profiles to include this analysis. The US, World, Czech Republic, Germany, Nigeria, NY, Texas and Mississippi have been done so far.
The reason is that summer seasonality does not infect hardly any people if there is much lockdown. All those susceptible individuals carry through to the vaccine era. At best a vaccine will be 70% effective, which is quite enough once everyone is vaccinated. But until then, 30% of the vaccinated and 100% of everyone else will get sick. No worldwide vaccination program has even been done. We don't know how long it will take. An optimistic vaccination program starting in December with 300 million doses a month is now in all our simulations. Leave comments using Disqus below.
The forecast for US cases going forward is nearly flat through the end of the year when vaccination will begin: (click for full US profile, updated 6/27)
Helping the World recover from COVID faster AND safer!
This site provides second opinion COVID forecasts for personal use to plan trips, events, investments or self-isolation with accurate projections through 4/2021. It can tell you whether your country/region is on-track, or whether the deniers or the fear mongers are right.
Lockdown vs. Reopening? For each region we take into account what is actually happening on the ground, then publicly stated goals and desires.
What's different about our models?
Yes, it does. See article in The Atlantic: You're Showering Too Much. You may want to use a moisturing cream. My dermatologist recommended CeraVe. It's a creme. I tried it. But I wound up using Okeefe's Skin Repair Lotion as it covers large areas, has a handy squirt dispenser, and works as well or better. Same price at Amazon and Walmart.
Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Most of them are not very good. Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores, or by mail order:
Ě This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I justs bought one, in winter they may sell out)
Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order:Lowest priced 5-star review we could find
Through April 2021
World:, Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil ,Czech_Republic, China, Colombia, India,Lebanon, Germany, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Russia , Spain, US, Venezuela.
US States/Counties: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Los Angeles Co., Colorado, Florida, Mississippi, LafayetteCo(Oxford), NY , South_Dakota,Texas ,HarrisCounty(Houston), Washington.
Twenty country and state profiles, many updated today!
Request a country or state profile using our contact form . . .
Featured profiles of the day: Texas (high economic recovery) - China
model assumptions and use - View
Discusses how to avoid unnecessary deaths from overshoot.
| - Excel
spreadsheet with all country data and all US states, updated with
(6/25/2020), Get user guide.
Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye meetings. If you have an old webcam like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved. Both sound and picture are much better.
The better webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock! I have a Logitec that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer. Are their any decent webcams for less? I looked at a bunch under $40. Most have some problem if you read the reviews closely. This was the only one I saw without a big negative in the reviews. I got mine and picture is excellent, sound okay.Under $40 webcam with good reviews, 1080p, 30 fps (not for gaming)
|Top Articles &
For full list of articles see list at right.
We can help you forecast your area using the homoestasis principle, robust to unknowns. People will make it true. Request a region profile .
Animate: Unlock initial 0-20%, Mortality improvement 0 to 75% in September, Case ratio 7 to 30, R0 1.5 to 4, Immunity wear off 90 to 630 days, Vaccine effectiveness 0-70%, Seasonality 0-40%.
What is Risk Homeostasis? How do we achieve prediction stability? Notice how the total cases (blue dots) follows the population immunity threshold (yellow) which varies with seasonality and degree of unlock (reopening or easing)? Total cases are pulled toward that line. They won't wander far off. The line is maneuvered by the step unlocks so that public risk perception remains constant (homeostasis). We believe social feedback will cause people to lock down if risk goes up and vice versa, negative feedback creating stability Cases (red dots) increase slightly while critical cases (orange dashes) decline, preserving a stable risk perception, i.e. risk homeostasis.
About 2% per month improvement. In our model we postulate half of this is from increased testing to find less critical cases, and half genuine improvement. If so deaths per case will be 75% less by fall, making it advantageous to put off cases.
Online Interactive Model by Dyske Suematsu
This is more or less the same model as in the spreadsheet, but without the ability to control seasonality and a few other advanced features. But very easy to use and you don't have to import data. It is automatically accessed for most countries, states, and some smaller regions.
Open with preset parameters: US, India, Brazil, Russia, Texas, New York State, . . .
To save your modifications, copy the URL from Dyske's window.