Argentina
COVID-19 Forecast 
(rapid cases build, overshoot warning, travel
warning) <<Prev Next>> Española
Probability of getting COVID this summer (their winter) in
Argentina is 33-50% depending on which path they take.
If you are at risk there, take responsibility for your own isolation, have
someone deliver food. Or leave the
country.
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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SUMMARY ·
Argentina is
likely stable, but badly in need of an economic boost. ·
The “moderate”
plan here is really pretty aggressive.
Our normal moderate had little benefit (though little cost in
fatalities either). ·
Cases Argentina
will be during our summer, their winter, when the virus is difficult to
control and spreads like wildfire.
Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks. ·
Mortality is
trending down faster in Argentina than just about anywhere. It may be that our model over estimates
fatalities here. ·
Cases tend to
bunch in winter (their winter), and there is little risk of rebound from early
unlock, which is the basis of our economic recovery profile. ·
There is a
continuous period of travel risk over the next two seasons only. ·
The cost in
fatalities in these three options is negligible. However, the phasing of economic recovery,
which is good in all options, is near term in the MODERATE, and not until
year end or later in the SLOW scenarios.
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Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, which is really pretty
aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.
Argentina is already in the virus high season. Vaccine is too late for them, like NY and
Italy and other hot spots. |