|
Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY
– POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
|
|
|
Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or
70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable
and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
|
MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
|
|
|
Non-contact
temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take
anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you
get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: ·
Lowest priced 5-star review we could find |
SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
|
|
|
Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate
where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve
probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores,
mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
Not Available! |
SUMMARY India has an inhomogeneous collection of languages and
cultures. While not showing signs
of breaking up, it is a mystery what keeps it together. Possibly a common denominator of high
compliance among the population elements.
It has had a border skirmish recently with China, and is enemies with
unstable nuclear neighbor Pakistan.
They should not risk instability. India has announced opening but there is no sign of it.
They did not let enough cases
build to have any kind of immunity. We will watch the R0 chart
carefully for any signs of unlock and be ready to change our forecast. India is moderately seasonal. They have a little leeway to unlock during
the summer. However, the issue may be
inadequate medical facilities. We do
not have data on their medical facilities. Mortality is low in India due to a young population,
but is not trending down enough. A rise in cases in the fall or winter is inevitable. We tried to clamp
down on this, but if we do, a huge rebound hits even after vaccination
begins! The path we chose is a
compromise between the two. Travel risk goes up in the spring. No IHME projection available Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY.
However, we don’t have any basis for thinking India might be able to tolerate
the medical facility load, and so we don’t even show a moderate
scenario. Our forecast is SLOW RECOVERY and we
present three scenarios. The first one
is more likely. This country has been
allowing a large fraction of its population to live in poverty while
pretending it is a developed nation.
Either is OK, but stricter lockdown than even developed nations can
afford may strangle India. |
