LogoSmall.jpgIndia COVID-19 Forecast   India.gif      <<Prev    Next>>     



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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:









Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.


These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review


Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.






MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line





Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.


Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)




Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.


Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)







Not Available!







India has an inhomogeneous collection of languages and cultures.  While not showing signs of breaking up, it is a mystery what keeps it together.  Possibly a common denominator of high compliance among the population elements.  It has had a border skirmish recently with China, and is enemies with unstable nuclear neighbor Pakistan.  They should not risk instability. 

India has announced opening but there is no sign of it.  They did not let enough cases build to have any kind of immunity.  We will watch the R0 chart carefully for any signs of unlock and be ready to change our forecast.

India is moderately seasonal.  They have a little leeway to unlock during the summer.  However, the issue may be inadequate medical facilities.  We do not have data on their medical facilities.

Mortality is low in India due to a young population, but is not trending down enough.

A rise in cases in the fall or winter is inevitable.  We tried to clamp down on this, but if we do, a huge rebound hits even after vaccination begins!  The path we chose is a compromise between the two.

Travel risk goes up in the spring.

No IHME projection available

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  However, we don’t have any basis for thinking India might be able to tolerate the medical facility load, and so we don’t even show a moderate scenario.  Our forecast is SLOW RECOVERY and we present three scenarios.  The first one is more likely.  This country has been allowing a large fraction of its population to live in poverty while pretending it is a developed nation.  Either is OK, but stricter lockdown than even developed nations can afford may strangle India.




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