United
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Things you might need Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or
70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable
and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: |
TRANSMISSION
RATE (R0) TRACKING The change in R0 is right on track
with the PLANNED UNLOCK PERCENTAGE.
SEASONALITY
– POPULATION – Risk of Dying
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ECONOMIC
RECOVERY POTENTIAL (reduced from previous)
(Image: WSJ.com, July 2, 2020)
There appears to be a 25% reduction in
lost jobs. ·
While our recent
unlock was 22% for US, there is a small relock in progress and we estimate return to 20%, probably already reflected since hiring is forward
looking. ·
This corresponds to an efficiency gain (from masks and distancing) of 1.25, less than
earlier US estimate of 1.4, more in line with our world estimate of 1.2. |
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Non-contact
temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take
anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you
get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: |
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line The profile shown (red dots or blue shading) is minimum
deaths and we deem it likely. · More (red shading) or less (green shading) unlock give higher deaths, result from only a 10% change in degree of unlock, and are within 80% possibility range. ·
2.8 million US cases as of 7/2/2020 x 15.9
case ratio = 44 million likely cases · 44/330 = 13.3% of population now immune (allows 13% unlock with no case growth) · 188,000 eventual deaths now forecast, 57,000 above current total of 131,000. · 10% more unlock gives 200,000 deaths. · 10% less unlock either produces 197,000 deaths, or requires continued economic shutdown through the summer of 2021 while vaccine is given to everyone
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Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate
where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve
probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a
humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores,
mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out) |
SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while
isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye
meetings. If you have an old webcam
like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved. Both sound and picture are much better.
The better
webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock! I have a Logitec
that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer. Are their any decent webcams for less? I looked at a bunch under $40. Most have some problem if you read the
reviews closely. This was the only one
I saw without a big negative in the reviews.
I ordered one, and it works well. |
IHME PROJECTION
TEST POSITIVITY 6/25/2020 (from Bus.
Insider)
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SUMMARY A small relock is in progress to control emerging peaks in some states. 45,000 new cases on June 27 is
likely to be the maximum we see. Even
minor action would constrain them to this level. Unlock levels 10% beyond those we are
seeing would not exceed this level.
Caution to avoid exceeding hospital system limits is appropriate. Alarmism is not necessary and is harmful. The United States stability is improving. One party has declared intent to oust the other
from power for 4 years now. However demonstrations have mostly stopped, an independent free zone
declared in one state has been removed, and administration claims about the
latest Russia fiasco have been confirmed by the CIA. We believe that with some degree of unlock and about 5
million jobs restored, people are back to work instead of protesting. Easing of restrictions has been going on 6 weeks but only for 2 weeks has the
R0 curve turned up significantly. Our forecast still bows to
the social pressure not to exceed the highest case levels seen so far.
The US is still building immunity rapidly, but more of a moderate than a fast
recovery. Fauci
and others are trying to make sure people don’t over-ease, apparently,
warning of 100,000 cases a day, which is not possible in our model at the
rates of unlock we are seeing. Most of the
US is seasonal and benefitting from summer.
About a third of the states where cases were low are not experiencing sharp
rises. This is normal. It has not proved possible anywhere in the
world to simply suppress cases, even in China. A limited amount of population immunity is required
even for social distancing to work. It’s not one or the other. If the case ratio is
15, while there are 2.3 million documented cases, there are probably over 30
million undocumented ones. The current
average case ratio is 15.9 but we have not analyzed many states. All the ones we look at recently come in at
20 and above. Mortality is
trending down faster than the rest of
the world after starting quite high. A few states have issues. This profile uses a methodology that
matches the total deaths and the most recent day incremental deaths. This gives US mortality trending down twice
the rate of the rest of the world. 71%
of the ultimate deaths in the US have already occurred. IHME is currently predicting 175,000 deaths
by October 1. We are predicting about
181,000 total by end of epidemic. These are consistent. A rise in
cases in the fall is likely, but no longer inevitable. If the current relock is weaker than expected,
those cases will be worked off over the summer. Individual
states which have stayed locked tight and
not built up immunity will experience a fall peak just as states previously
with low cases are having peaks now. Low cases
leads to subsequent peaks until most
people have had either the virus or a vaccine. This fact has not sunk in with the media. IHME (left)
is not showing a fall relock. They are not
predicting into the fall, stopping at October 1. The US leads
the world in number of cases, 2x Brazil and 4x Russia. Those three countries have similar percentages
of their population having had the disease and are rapidly building immunity.
Some countries had a lot of cases but have clamped down so tight they are no
longer building immunity. We think that will backfire, e.g. in Spain,
but much later, in the winter. There is
moderate travel risk in summer and fall, then tapering down. Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY.
This leaves a lot of the economy hampered or shut down. It is really a mix of FAST recovery in the
states with high case ratio, and SLOW in the states
with early infections that had high mortality. Looks like we are set to
have limited baseball in 2020, and due to higher
transmission rate in the fall I’m betting against football or any college
sports with large attendance. The trouble
with the US is if it looks like cases
are spiking, business are going to be shut and the attitude is that it’s
doomsday and will never end, and everyone loses their job, their house,
seemingly the shirt off their backs. It’s pitiful, the fragility of
this “mighty” economy, full of service jobs that are “non-essential.” |
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