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 WORLD COVID-19 Forecast    <<Prev    Next>>



About the World Analysis: 

It is more practical to manage a pandemic at the country or even local level.  Especially as regards to lockdown, as it is costly to apply.  However a useful overview is possible at a global level.  Just don’t take the unlock percentages too literally. 

Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:


Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.


These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.



TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)











on-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.


Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find









MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line

Three cases are shown.  The red dots are the “moderate” case which
has the lowest total deaths.  Near term stay-locked (green) is
higher unless locked 2 years.  Faster (red) has more economic recovery.

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Most of them are not very good.  Be sure to get a good one.


Usually available in department or discount stores, or by mail order:

·         This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I justs bought one, in winter they may sell out)



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)




Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye meetings.  If you have an old webcam like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved.  Both sound and picture are much better.


The better webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock!  I have a Logitec that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer.  Are their any decent webcams for less?  I looked at a bunch under $40.  Most have some problem if you read the reviews closely.  This was the only one I saw without a big negative in the reviews.  I bought one.  Picture is great.  Sound is OK.

·         Under $40 webcam with good reviews, 1080p, 30 fps (not for gaming)


Special FAST recovery option for Low Group


If followed, this profile would get the low-cases countries out of trouble by stimulating case growth to within their capacity, then freezing the cases level with a sharp re-lock lasting two months.  It then uses a rapid two additional unlock steps to guide immunity to the threshold without overshoot.

·         Deaths in low group on optimal track: less than half a million.

·         On too slow or too fast tracks:  .8 to .93 million.

·         Assumes 12/1 vaccination start.





·         STABILITY:  Many countries were already unstable pre-COVID, some for a long time, some since the financial crisis of 2008-9, with active civil wars and mass migrations.  The economic stress of lockdown is many times that of the financial crisis, and the social stress of double-digit millions of loss of life might be as well.  We could see a precipitous decline with a quarter billion people starving, and things not normalized before the middle of the century, when other problems might be upon us.  The issue is cascading problems.

·         MORTALITY is coming down and death estimates are dramatically cut from our last forecast.  It is less in the low group (countries with few cases so far), but most of the decline seems to be already in place with the trend slowed.  It might not be so advantageous to wait for fall for the Low Group as for the High Group (countries with a lot of cases like Europe and the US).

·         CASE PACING we take from the existing situation, especially for the MODERATE scenario.  Outside the US but in the High Group there will likely be a near term peak in High Group cases in the second half of the summer, building into the fall.  The Low group is afraid to have cases and so will have to stay locked down for two years.  This is bad news.  We think more than one country will go unstable, if now while COVID is active, then shortly after.  People may be forgiving on the economy while it is active.  Without recovery, they will revolt.

·         Recommendation:  The high cases group should remain as unlocked as possible.  Otherwise there will be an embarrassing peak even after vaccination begins. 

The low cases group should evaluate whether they can really lock down for two years, and train their population to safely conduct business so they do not have destabilization.  See aggregate recommendation for low group at left.  This would produce the economic recovery below:


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