This chart shows the transmission rate.  It remains above 1.0 so the infection is growing, though not rapidly.

This chart shows the mortality trend in India.  It is down at a rate similar to other regions, making it advantageous to put off cases.  Whether the trend continues is uncertain.

This is the slow-recovery option, putting off cases as long as possible by maintaining the current status quo.  As you can see the cases grow anyway , but are mostly put off until fall.  Your chances of getting sick in each season (summer-winter-fall) if you live here are shown in 3-color image at right.

This is the moderate-recovery option.  It gives a 10% improvement in the economy but increases the chances of getting sick this summer.

This is the fast-recovery option and will have more people getting sick, but also more people keeping their retirement savings, jobs and small businesses, and everything is over at an earlier date.

This chart is a comparison of economic recovery (on a scale of a percent of one year lockdown costs, green bars) and cost of the pandemic in direct deaths* (as a percent of the highest case, dark bars).  No relative comparison is implied at this scale.  If a person loses their retirement savings, if ten people lose their retirement savings or small businesses, how many disease deaths is that morally equivalent to?  This we feel should be a persona choice, not legislated by government.

No particular inflection point is obvious in this plot (sometimes they are).  There is a steady cost in fatalities for economic recovery, but not a lot of difference can be made in deaths whereas a factor of 40 or 50 is available in economic recovery.  Assuming moderate recovery allows most people to survive and not lose their future, it might be a reasonable choice.

* Deaths scale inverse to case ratio.  Case ratio is not well known.  Calculations assume 15.

SUMMARY: In two INDIA scenarios cases are mostly in the fall, interfering with school opening.   In the aggressive scenario cases are during the summer.  The R0 under lockdown is too high to be effective at holding cases for a vaccine.  Since the mortality rate is low and possibly not declining much further, there is not much downside to this.  The model's declining mortality assumption may make the faster scenarios look worse than they actually are. 

- India gains over 40 times as much back in its economy for less than a 30% increase in serious cases by taking the most aggressive stance, which is what I would recommend.

- But they will probably take the middle way.  It will be interesting to see their choices.

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