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 Ukraine Nuclear Risk:  US Opinion Poll
Full results 4/11/2022 click here
Conducted for ShulerResearch by Greg Ling, market research specialist
500 US consumer samples -- Margin of error 4%
You can participate in a separately tallied survey here
Discussion / Highlights:

Q1 - Suggests 55% would not endure nuclear war for any country but their own. However, Q3 which asks about the type of response and offers "proportional" and non-nuclear alternatives has only 15% taking the "my country only" position.

Q2 - What is the risk Russia would attack US with nukes if it loses Donbas or Crimea?


Q3 - What type of response would you prefer:


Q3 - Is the greater risk country-by-country takeovers by nuclear autocracies, or confronting and stopping Russia and Putin now?

Analysis:  If an influencer or politician poses question 1 without qualifying that the action is low risk (Q2), that proportional and non-nuclear responses are available (Q3) or that there is a greater risk from not confronting the opponent (Q4) then a person may give an answer that is not a genuine reflection of their full judgment.  They may even be induced to voting in an irrational manner.  Always consider what influencers and politicians are "leaving out." 

A second interesting point is that right wing or "Trump" Republicans, and Fox News, will typically play up the fear of nuclear war (tending toward a Q1 statement of the problem, though not necessarily Trump himself who casts things in terms of his relationship with a war criminal leader of Russia).  And President Biden uses the Q1 strategy also, "Direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be World War 3" - The Hill March 11, 2022.

Given that 65%  view continued takeovers as higher risk, and 75% view nuclear escalation in the event of Russia being kicked entirely out of Ukraine as low to very low, and 60% (at right) favor increased or direct support for Ukraine, these two political positions being the same doesn't make sense.  Ukraine seems to have formed a new middle coalition in American politics between moderate Democrats and Republicans.  That is a hopeful sign.  Though it might not be in time to help Ukraine. Another option on Q2 reveals that even if NATO causes loss of Russian ships and missile launchers directly, risk of nuclear escalation is still in the very low to medium range.

Risk from Continued War: The most discussed risks are of a response to NATO/US actions.  But greater risks may occur over time due to accidental intrusion into NATO space, deliberate disruption of supplies in NATO space, or a war of opportunity conducted by Serbia or China while the US is occupied in Ukraine. Stopping the war more quickly may minimize risk.  For a full discussion see Larger War Looming If Not Stopped Soon. If you are moved to express your opinion, whatever it is, there are links there to email, call or write US representatives.

Important and Recent Papers

Career Affiliation:   NASA / Johnson Space Center - NASA profile
ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6129-6867


Deleterious Behaviorally Transmitted Traits in Equilibrium (preprint - preprints.org, Jan. 2021)
This paper analyzes equilibrium between gene-meme and meme-meme competing propagators and consider whether a meme is linked to reproduction (e.g. vertical culture transmission), or not. We employ a genetic component and combined meme induced fitness components for hosts, while memes have replication factors to distinguish from what's good for the host (fitness).

Emergence of Objective Reality in an Irreversible Friend thought Experiment Cite as Shuler, R.L. (2021) Emergence of Objective Reality in an Irreversible Friend Thought Experiment, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 9(8), Aug. DOI: 10.4236/jamp.2021.98128
Recently some photon models of a Wigner's friend experiment have led investigators to suggest objective reality does not exist, and to publish non-academic articles with such claims. The public is not equipped to evaluate the severe limitations of these experiments. This paper analyzes the issues with statements about objective reality, defining what it means to participants as opposed to QM researchers, and proposing more difficult thought experiments that explicitly test for objectivity from the participant standpoint.

Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1 - 3 Million Lives Worldwide (Open Journal of Epidemiology, Vol.10 No.3, August 2020, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2020.103024) A large percentage of deaths in an epidemic or pandemic can be due to overshoot of population (herd) immunity, either from the initial peak or from planned or unplanned exit from lockdown or social distancing conditions. We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot.

Wealth-relative effects in cooperation games (J. Heliyon, 5, 12, Dec. 2019) This paper investigates cooperation games in which poor agents do not benefit from cooperation with wealthy agents. They instead benefit from considering wealth relative to decision payoffs of fitness or wealth.

Wealth inhomogeneity applied to crash rate theory (J.Heliyon, 1, 3, Nov 2015) - A crash rate theory based on corporate economic utility maximization is applied to individual behavior in U.S. and German motorway death rates, by using wealth inhomogeneity data in ten-percentile bins to account for variations of utility maximization in the population.

A family of metric gravities With a new exact Schwarzschild method, a local space-time relation, strong-field verification targets, and the ability to promote field gravities to full metricity (The European Physical Journal Plus, 133: 158, April 2018) The goal of this paper is to take a completely fresh approach to metric gravity, in which the metric principle is strictly adhered to but its properties in local space-time are derived from conservation principles, not inferred from a global field equation.

Entropy-Like State Counting Leads to Human Readable Four Color Map Theorem Proof (Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal. Vol. 7, No. 3, 2018, pp. 37-44. doi: 10.11648/j.pamj.20180703.12) The problem of how many colors are required for a planar map has been used as a focal point for discussions of the limits of human direct understanding vs. automated methods. It is important to continue to investigate until it is convincingly proved map coloration is an exemplary irreducible problem or until it is reduced. Meanwhile a new way of thinking about surfaces which hide N-dimensional volumes has arisen in physics employing entropy and the holographic principle. In this paper we define coloration entropy or flexibility as a count of the possible distinct colorations of a map (planar graph), and show how a guaranteed minimum coloration flexibility changes based on additions at a boundary of the map.

Numerical Geodesic Approximation for Theoretical and Experimental Light Bending Analysis (Advances in Astrophysics, vol 2, no 1, pp 76-85, August 2016)  This paper investigates a least-time (or fastest-path) two-point algorithm for numerically propagating a light ray in a gravitational field using anisotropic coordinate velocity and distant observer coordinates. Rather than imaging or ray tracing, the objective is to support analysis of fundamentals and to be able to find null geodesics in arbitrary metrics.

Common pedagogical issues with de Broglie waves: moving double slits, composite mass and clock synchronization (Shuler, R.L., "Common Pedagogical Issues with De Broglie Waves: Moving Double Slits, Composite Mass, and Clock Synchronization," Physics Research International, Vol. 2015 (2015). - direct link to PDF)This pedagogical paper suggests simple techniques for reference frame independent analysis of a moving double slit electron interference experiment, and a beat frequency heuristic for understanding de Broglie waves of composite particles such as neutrons and atoms.

Leading Clocks Lag Phys. Ed., 51, 2 (2016) http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0031-9120/51/2/025005 - A new memory aid for teaching the relativity of simultaneity is given that puts it on a par with "time dilation" and "length contraction" for quick and easy problem visualization.

The Twins-Clock Paradox History and Perspectives - (Journal of Modern Physics, July 2014 DOI: 10.4236/jmp.2014.512108) - The twins or clock paradox has been a subject of lively discussion and occasional disagreement among both relativists and the public for over 100 years, and continues to attract physicists who write papers giving new analyses or defending old ones, even though many physicists now consider the matter only of educational interest.  (Our most popular paper with 5390 downloads!)

A Fresh Spin on Newton's Bucket - (Published version in Physics Education vol. 50 no. 1 p. 88, 2015, short illustrated article suitable for high school or first semester physics students)  An introduction to physics seems incomplete without the thought experiment known as Newton's Bucket.  Doing so also introduces the famous historical critique of Newton by Mach, which inspired Einstein and spawned modern theories of gravity and the cosmos.

civilian genocide victims with hands tied for execution in Bucha
Civilian genocide victims in Bucha near Kyiv with hands tied for execution

Ukraine Support: US Opinion Poll
Full results 4/3/2022 click here
Conducted for ShulerResearch by Greg Ling, market research specialist
500 US consumer samples -- Margin of error 4%
You can participate in a separately tallied survey here
Discussion / Highlights:
  • 52% felt Ukraine was like Britain in ww2,
    34% like Checkoslavakia, which eventually wound up split.
  • 60% favored arming Ukraine with jets or missiles,
    27% help refugees only.
  • 57% favored forcing Russia to obey international norms,
    while a surprising 30% favored extending sanctions as an "economic war of democracies against autocracies".  Net 87% favored extending sanctions beyond end to current hostilities.
  • 76% thought major war crimes had been committed by Russia,
    10% by Ukraine. 
    18% thought US domestic issues were more important. 
    26% thought there would be change in US policy until an election.
  • Asked about Donald Trump & Ukraine
    • 35% felt he'd arm Ukraine more aggressively
    • 33% felt he'd pressure Ukraine to surrender
    • 31% felt he'd only be concerned with getting dirt on Hunter Biden
  • Asked which leader they most respected:
    • 48% for Zelensky
    • 16% each for Morawiecki & Biden
    • 5% for Kaja Kallas
    • 4% for Putin
    • 2% each for Scholz, Macron & Trump
    • 0.5% ea. Ron Paul, Tom Cotton, Obama, Modi, Xi
The Trump question is interesting because no matter your preference, only 1/3rd of the US believes Trump would take the path you prefer.  People are wildly undecided about Trump's real policy intentions. 

From this survey at least, the US public favors stronger action by significantly more than the margin of error.  Political affiliation was not polled to avoid contaminating the survey with political feeling.  However, the paltry 18% that felt domestic issues were unimportant in comparison does not seem to be reflected in media coverage and is a surprise. If this stays on voters' minds, it could be a single-issue deciding factor in May-June primaries, or even in fall elections.

Based on all the results, and known divisions in the usually hawkish Republican party, it seems likely bipartisan support for stronger arming of Ukraine is high, possibly a majority in both parties.


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Who We Are . . .

Robert Shuler about:  He is the author of over 50 peer reviewed technical papers, a book on Crash Rate Theory and two books on economics.  He is retired from a 45 year career in advanced projects and systems reliability at NASA and continues select areas of research related to the future of society.  He lives in Texas most of the time, likes to visit his wife's relatives in Siberia, and publishes music arrangements
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Theo Koukouvitis about:   With thousands of published articles and dozens of eBooks that between them command millions of daily views, I am one of the most prolific and successful freelance writers active today.


Civille O. Brown, MLS, about:  I am interested in how each person's unique talent, experience and life situation leads them to different choices, and how to maximize each person's potential.  According to evolutionary theory, there is no progress or advancement of one over the other, we've all been here 3.5 billion years.  But the future can be predicted sometimes, and knowing it changes it.  Then progress can be defined by a combination of the individual desires and abilities relative to the future environment.  Getting along in a common world does not mean we all want to behave in the same way or seek the same things.  "Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid," wasn't really said by Einstein, but it sums up my approach to the study of people.

Dyske Suematsu about:  I help small business owners leverage the power of the Internet to grow their business. I have breathed and lived on the Internet for the past 20 years, and, therefore, have a good sense of how things evolve—what works and what doesn’t. I can learn my clients’ business objectives, provide actionable strategies, and manage the execution.