Shuler Research
Visitors since 4/22/2020:
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Chance of encountering someone with COVID at Thanksgiving dinner, 2020:
NOTICE: This page ceased updating August 1 due to vacation, and will not be continued due to the constantly changing case ratio as more and more testing is done.  Based on current estimated vaccine effectiveness of 90% and availability of about 20 million doses/month in US beginning in mid-December, we project a practical end to the COVID pandemic about the end of March 2020, resumption of normal life in the US in May, and gradual normalization of world travel during the summer of 2021.  The information here will be retained for the time being for historical reference.

FORECAST ACCURACY:  Notice that our US Forecast made at the end of June (below) included a rise in cases in the fall of 2020.  The amount of the rise is approximately correct if one accounts for greatly increased testing and case discovery.

Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:


Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

Ě         Low priced, good review

 Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.
.
Measles deaths in 2000 were comparable to Coronavirus deaths so far (half a million) - but there was no lockdown for Measles.  https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50659893

Temp gun & Azithromycin success story!
- I got the low-priced temp gun (see below left), calibrated it (on myself, 98.6) and pointed it at my son and wife.  Bingo, Natasha had 99.8.  It is so easy and fast.  She was feeling bad, but it'd have been days before she bothered to take her temp the old way.  It wasn't high enough to just notice.
    Turned away at Kelsey-Seybold and sent home without being offered a COVID test, we canceled the video appointment and went to Memorial-Herman Urgent Care where they tested her.  It would take 3 days to get the result.
    How to get immediate treatment?  I found Push Health which offered immediate prescriptions, and requested azithromycin, hydrochloroquine and dexamethasone.  They gave 10 days of the antibiotic, said the quinine was banned for COVID treatment, and dexamethasone was for hospital use only.  For a $64 consultation fee and $3 copay at CVS, we had azithromycin within an hour.
    The Push Health physician called to follow up, and advised to use the following two items.  For some reason these are hard to find, and she said to order from Amazon.  That, of course, takes a few days, so it might be wise to have them on hand:

Vicks VapoSteam, 8 Ounce Medicated Vaporizing Liquid with Camphor to Help Relieve Coughing, For Use in Vaporizers and Humidifiers (there is a humidifier at left)
ADDIPAK Unit Dose Solutions - 3ml (100 ea/Box) requires a nebulizer, which we already had.
    Natasha got a call today.  Negative for COVID.  However, she is well from whatever bug she had, sinus or bronchitis maybe, had a bad headache with it, and we believe it is due to the antibiotic.  Get a temp gun.  Even if you don't get COVID, it will come in handy!  I've ordered a second one with a wider object temperature range for my son to play with.  (most of them switch from body to object)


The forecast for US cases going forward (click for full US profile, updated 6/27)

Everything you want to know about cases trajectory constraints

Helping the World recover from COVID faster AND safer!

This site provides second opinion COVID forecasts for personal use to plan trips, events, investments or self-isolation with accurate projections through 4/2021It can tell you whether your country/region is on-track, or whether the deniers or the fear mongers are right.


Lockdown vs. Reopening? For each region we take into account what is actually happening on the ground, then publicly stated goals and desires. 

What's different about our models? 
  • Calculate and display true number of cases not just reported cases (a case ratio is calculated using newly available test positivity data, usually around 15, sometimes as high as 50!).  See lower left notation on
  • Take into account mortality trend, calculate and display anticipated deaths for three scenarios: minimum deaths, extra lockdown, extra economic recovery.  Notated on color coded case trajectories, see figure at left.
  • Take into account political and social factors (whether a region reacts strongly to case increases, likely need to increase contact rate for school opening - our social distancing estimate is not just a trend line)
  • Vaccine program simulation based on publically available data and contracts
  • Plots show realistic uncertainty bounds on forecast, not just a spreading "storm track."
  • Plots graphically show the cases-now vs. cases in future tradeoff (green/red regions)
  • Economic opening (green) and current effective immunity (yellow, also called case growth threshold) shown on same plot
Health Tip!

All that handwashing leads to eczema! 

Yes, it does.  See article in The Atlantic
: You're Showering Too Much.  You may want to use a moisturing cream.  My dermatologist recommended CeraVe It's a creme.  I tried it.  But I wound up using Okeefe's Skin Repair Lotion as it covers large areas, has a handy squirt dispenser, and works as well or better.  Same price at Amazon and Walmart.

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Most of them are not very good.  Be sure to get a good one.

Usually available in department or discount stores, or by mail order:

Ě      This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I justs bought one, in winter they may sell out)

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

tempgun.jpg

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

Country/State Projections Through April 2021

Note: Only World, US, Texas, Mississippi, Colorado, Argentina are being updated while I am on vacation in August - there is some updated data in the others, but not unlock profiles, etc.





Profiles show:
  • seasonal travel advisory,
  • economic recovery,
  • infection rate for status quo and moderate unlock,
  • early and late vaccine benefits,
  • fatalities for each option
  • side by side comparison with IHME projection for US states.
Twenty country and state profiles, many updated today!
Request a country or state profile using our contact form . . .

Lockdown delays but does not completely eliminate cases...

Spreading Rate:

Tracking R0 tells whether social distancing succeeded (look at steep fall of US spreading in red, astonishing) and degree of reopening (or increase of contact rate).   Analysis of above trends:
  • The world on average is reopening.  How much economic activity is generated by the social contact rate will later be reflected in employment figures.   Due to using masks and distance, we'll get back more per unit of contact than we lost.  But some businesses like sports and bars are hard to make efficient.
  • The countries which have had few cases (low group, yellow) are not reopening.  It is too scary.  Without cases, they have no immunity and transmission rate is very high (see animation above).
If you want to contribute a profile, see instructions in the featured profile.  Download templateMaybe your analysis will be our next feature!

Featured profiles of the day: Texas (high economic recovery) - China
China COVID-19 projection

  Describes model assumptions and use - View Paper
Discusses how to avoid unnecessary deaths from overshoot.
- Excel spreadsheet with all country data and all US states, updated with current data (7/16/2020),  Get user guide.

Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye meetings.  If you have an old webcam like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved.  Both sound and picture are much better.

The better webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock!  I have a Logitec that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer.  Are their any decent webcams for less?  I looked at a bunch under $40.  Most have some problem if you read the reviews closely.  This was the only one I saw without a big negative in the reviews.  I got mine and  picture is excellent, sound okay.

$33 webcam with good reviews, 720p, 30 fps, good sound (not for gaming)
Top Articles & Info
For full list of articles see list at right.
COVID-19 can last for several monthsHow long will COVID-19 last?state by state guide to reopeningMedia biased toward lockdown says South Dakota gov. NoemProtests give permission to violate social distancingWhat are climate and seasonal effects on COVID-19 transmission?Do masks prevent spread of COVID-19? research results and videoHow long will social distancing last?How have countries handled social distancing at school?  Do kids wear masks?  Sit in every other desk?

COVID-19 US Forecasting Using
Risk Homeostasis and Seasonality

We can help you forecast your area using the homoestasis principle, robust to unknowns.  People will make it true.  Request a region profile .

Animate: Unlock initial 0-20%, Mortality improvement 0 to 75% in September, Case ratio 7 to 30, R0 1.5 to 4, Immunity wear off 90 to 630 days, Vaccine effectiveness 0-70%, Seasonality 0-40%.
US with varying unlock levels
(click to enlarge)

What is Risk Homeostasis How do we achieve prediction stability?  Notice how the total cases (blue dots) follows the population immunity threshold (yellow) which varies with seasonality and degree of unlock (reopening or easing)?  Total cases are pulled toward that line.  They won't wander far off.  The line is maneuvered by the step unlocks so that public risk perception remains constant (homeostasis).  We believe social feedback will cause people to lock down if risk goes up and vice versa, negative feedback creating stability  Cases (red dots) increase slightly while critical cases (orange dashes) decline, preserving a stable risk perception, i.e. risk homeostasis.


Mortality Trend (US)
About 2% per month improvement.  In our model we postulate half of this is from increased testing to find less critical cases, and half  genuine improvement.  If so deaths per case will be 75% less by fall, making it advantageous to put off cases.

COVID-19 mortality trend, US

Online Interactive Model by Dyske Suematsu
This is more or less the same model as in the spreadsheet, but without the ability to control seasonality and a few other advanced features.  But very easy to use and you don't have to import data.  It is automatically accessed for most countries, states, and some smaller regions.
online interactive COVID-19 model with most countries, states and regions
Open with preset parameters: US, IndiaBrazil, RussiaTexasNew York State, . . .
To save your modifications, copy the URL from Dyske's window.

World detailed projection


Useful Articles (Do Masks Work?):
Reopening & Rebound Articles:
  • Young people in South testing positive (CNN) - I only checked Mississippi.  Something dramatic happened with R0 shooting up to 15 one day and remaining high, above initial Chinese levels.  Officials attributed it to fraternity rush parties.  Whatever the case, Mississippi chart now is the worst in the world with massive overshoot possible unless immediately brought under control.  Advise staying out of Mississippi until further notice.
School Articles:
Vaccine Articles - battle for control of the world's most valuable technology
Transmission, Treatment & Length of Infection