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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
POPULATION SEASONALITY
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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SUMMARY ·
Paraguay is likely
stable. ·
The difference in
fatalities between waiting and unlocking is zero. The epidemic here is not easily
controllable. However, immediate full
unlock would produce a large overshoot which is not reflected in the economy
chart and we don’t recommend it. ·
Cases in the
moderate unlock will be during our summer.
Paraguay is probably not heavily seasonal, but it is their winter. ·
Mortality is
extremely low and trending down. ·
There is little
risk of rebound from early unlock, which is the basis of our economic
recovery profile. ·
Travel risk is
mostly in our summer (July, August, early
September). ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, which is really pretty
aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.
Vaccine is too late for them, like NY and Italy and other hot spots. |