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|
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
|
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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ECONOMIC
RECOVERY POTENTIAL
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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SUMMARY
·
Pakistan will
probably destabilize if the slow path is taken.
·
The difference in
fatalities is negligible.
·
Pakistan mortality
is low. The puzzling uptick may be due to
data reporting issues (our method just compares deaths to week-earlier cases).
·
Most cases in the
moderate unlock will occur in fall when mortality is lower.
·
Unlocking because
cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see above
left) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock.
·
Late summer to early fall is the high risk travel period.
·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY