|
TRANSMISSION
RATE R0
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
|
|
MORTALITY
TREND
|
MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
|
|
FAST UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
|
|
FAST RECOVERY
OPTION
|
SUMMARY ·
Nigeria appears to
be stable. ·
The “moderate”
plan here is really pretty aggressive.
It reduces death by about half compared to unregulated recovery, and
provides modest economic recovery (comparable to western nations, Russia,
etc.). ·
Without
seasonality Nigeria gets no summer break.
Transmission rate hovers just at or just above 1.0. With ANY easing, they get a nasty peak in
the next few months. ·
Mortality is
trending down fast in Nigeria but recently tapered off. We are now much more confident in long term
mortality estimates. ·
There is a
continuous period of travel risk over the next two seasons. But no worse than here in Texas. ·
The cost in
fatalities of either MODERATE or FAST option is less than the unregulated
option, or the full lockdown option and suddenly releasing next year. But there is a fair amount of difference
between MODERATE and FAST. For most
countries we don’t present a FAST option.
The seasonal countries really can’t unlock enough for fast in the
summer, and it is tricky. Nigeria has
that option if they wish it. Our fast
option attempts to keep a mostly level case load for several months. The timing of this can be adjusted so that
they are ready for it with supplies. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, which is really pretty
aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.
But FAST is a viable option. ·
RISK IDENTIFIED:
Nigeria should be unlocking more for the next step. See
R0 chart. Failure to do so pushes cases into the future and causes the various green
peaks in the above charts, even after vaccination begins. That leads to more not less deaths. People have to eat. |
