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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE
RECOVERY: SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying (HIGH) TRAVEL
ADVISORY
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SUMMARY ·
Mexico is troubled
by cartels and even some revolutionaries.
We don’t have enough information to assess its stability. ·
Mexico mortality is
way too high but trending down somewhat.
We assume it will improve in a way similar to other nations. If not, our estimates are low by a factor
of 3. ·
Cases in the
moderate unlock will be spread out over time.
Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks. ·
Unlocking because
cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see
above vaccine cases). 200,000 excess
deaths if no vaccine until April 2021. ·
There is a
continuous period of travel risk over the next three seasons. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, justified by the lack of a
guarantee of a December vaccine. See
recovery potential chart. Mexico is at
great risk if it takes the vaccine path, but a vaccine is not available until
April 2021. And there is substantial
recovery from the MODERATE scenario.
However, we caveat this recommendation with the following: Mexico should get its mortality improved
before venturing on the moderate path. |