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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
SLOW
RECOVERY, April 2021 VACCINE:
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ECONOMIC
RECOVERY POTENTIAL
(Lebanon R0 goes below prior baseline locked rate, i.e.
negative, thus extra cost red bar) SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL ADVISORY,
MODERATE RECOVERY:
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Lebanon economic protests, BBC "I just want a job so I can live.” – protestor, June 2020 |
SUMMARY ·
Lebanon may
destabilize if the slow path is taken.
See at left. ·
The difference between
MODERATE and SLOW recovery in fatalities is 1400 people. More would likely be killed due to
instability. ·
The Lebanese
government is following a strict lockdown.
This will kill 300 more than moderate if vaccine is late. ·
Recommended MODERATE requires
aggressive easing followed by a re-lock.
Risky strategy justified by volatility of the region. ·
If Lebanon unlocks
because cases appear to have disappeared, a significant rebound could occur
(see late vaccine chart) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock. |
