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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY
– POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s
and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable
and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND China’s mortality trend is invalid
due to inconsistent data
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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Non-contact
temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take
anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you
get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: ·
Lowest priced 5-star review we could find |
SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate
where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve
probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores,
mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
Not Available! |
SUMMARY China is completely stable. It is a one party state with a population that seems
to like it that way with very few exceptions. China must stay locked down longer than other
countries. They did not let
enough cases build to have any kind of immunity. It is an example of
success breeds failure. To get China to work at all we had to postulate
50% faster vaccination than other countries (which might be realistic). China’s seasonality is moderate as the country extends
over a large north-south range. It cannot unlock more than 30% in
summer without a rebound. We are seeing local re-locks in the news
in mid June. Mortality is basically unknown due to unreliable and/or inconsistent data.
Death estimates are guesses based on other countries’ rates. A rise in cases in the fall is inevitable. We assume a fall relock will be used to prevent exceeding previous high case loads. It’s best if the country understands this early and
expects it. I think it does. There is little travel risk now or in the fall, except that you might get locked
down locally and unable to leave. There is some but not large travel
risk after that into the summer of 2021. China cannot unlock fully even
with vaccination until fall of 2021. Comparison to IHME projection at right is, well, IHME won’t touch China. Guess
we got them beat. Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY.
Economically it’s pretty austere. But cases will grow alarmingly.
At least at a rate that will alarm the Chinese. It would be ignored by
some countries. If China stays fully locked down, and is able to
vaccinate starting in December at the higher rate we postulate, they could
have very few additional deaths. We don’t think they can economically
tolerate it. If a vaccine is not available in December, they are
totally screwed with this approach. The moderate approach seems to be
what they are doing and we are confident in this projection. They have
models too. I suspect they know all this information. |
