|
TRANSMISSION
RATE R0
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
|
|
MORTALITY
TREND
|
MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
|
|
MOST LIKELY
UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
Detailed view
of most likely unlock
|
|
FAST RECOVERY
OPTION
|
SUMMARY ·
Czech Republic appears to be stable. ·
The “moderate” plan
here is extremely aggressive. It
acknowledges the unlock they have already shown, and proposes a brief re-lock
to control a near term peak, then resuming essentially a fast unlock, not so
moderate. ·
Seasonality and a very successful lockdown have nearly
extinguished cases. However, most of the population remains
susceptible. What we believe is going
to happen is shown in the second row above.
You can see why they think they are out of it and recently threw a goodbye party to COVID. They are going to be surprised. However, mortality is low, it’s probably OK
for them to have a burst and get it over with. The overshoot isn’t terrible, only about 5%
over the herd immunity threshold, maybe 800 extra deaths. ·
Mortality is low
and trending down. ·
There is a
continuous period of travel risk over the next three seasons. But no worse than here in Texas. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, which is really pretty
aggressive, but at least avoids overshoot.
But FAST is a viable option if they tolerate overload of their medical
facilities and 800 deaths. |
