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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY
– POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or
70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable
and accurate.
These are available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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Non-contact
temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take
anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you
get a good one, accurate.
Also available in most drug stores, or by mail
order: ·
Lowest priced 5-star review we could find |
SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW
UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate
where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve
probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available in department or discount stores,
mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
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SUMMARY Brazil is subject to high level political infighting. The president might be removed at any
time. Several recently have
been. Brazil high season is now. Their summer break will be in December-February, though
seasonality there is mild. Mortality is too high but trending down. Brazil is still in the process of slowly locking
down. This makes certain numbers in
our model negative because we do not yet have a zero unlock baseline. Highest travel risk is this summer. We believe Brazil will get locked down and cases
will taper Comparison to IHME projection at right is, well, we disagree. IHME is not taking into account the
continued decline in transmission rate.
See R0 chart above left. Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY.
Brazil is limited in how much it can unlock this summer, maybe 5% in late
July. But in the fall it can ease up
when everyone else is tightening. |
