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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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SUMMARY ·
Bangladesh
stability is unknown to us. ·
The difference in
fatalities is not large compared to the size of the country. ·
Mortality is
low. There is no particular trend. ·
Cases in the moderate
unlock will be spread out over time.
Hospitals will not be stressed unless by local outbreaks. ·
Unlocking because
cases appear to have disappeared may cause a significant rebound could (see
above left) with more lives lost than a moderate unlock. ·
There is a
continuous period of moderate travel risk over the next three seasons. ·
Recommendation: A tough call, but we suggest MODERATE
RECOVERY is the least exposed to long term
risks and practical vaccine schedules. |