Mississippi COVID-19 Forecast

Layafette Co Mississippi (Oxford, University of Mississippi) COVID-19 Forecast <<Prev - Next>>
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Oxford gets the Wile Coyote Award – over and done by late August. Assuming state high case ratio applies, many people have already had it.

Worldwide COVID-19 Status
visit our World profile page

Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:

TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)

NOTE: Layafette County is not large enough for our statistical analysis to be valid.
Points are scattered all over the place. Trend line is a wild guess.
But the results are probably “ball park’ish”.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL

Oxford never really locked down, but still significant recovery.

SEASONALITY - POPULATION – Chance of Dying

Among the lowest in the world.

TRAVEL ADVISORY

Don’t travel here in the summer. After that, you’re good.

Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen. They don’t struggle to breathe. But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help. Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.

These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

· Low priced, good review

Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.

MORTALITY TREND

Only 4 deaths, not statistically meaningful.

UNLOCK PACE – deaths & economic cost 2^nd line

Likely 12,000 actual cases assuming 40 case ratio

Eventual 5 deaths on current trajectory (one more, not statistically valid)

Eventual 18 deaths if more or less unlock (likely factor of 3 uncertainty)

Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.

Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

· Lowest priced 5-star review we could find

Detailed View

Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity. If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves. But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.

Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

· This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)

IHME PROJECTION

Not Available

SUMMARY

· Oxford is stable.

· Mortality is low. Cannot determine trend.

· Oxford will have a near term peak along with the state. It has a unique profile. It is almost at herd immunity, about 6 weeks away. The peak will not be much above the current level.

· Travel risk is moderate to high through summer, rapidly declining in fall.

· IHME projection not available that I know of.

· Observation: FAST RECOVERY.

I admit it. I’m from Mississippi. I didn’t think I’d ever admit Mississippi did anything cool. Whether it was on purpose or just dumb stupid luck, this is cool. The death rate is not high at all. Mississippi proves COVID can be over and done by mid-summer.

Webcam – It is essential to keep in touch with family and friends while isolating, and your school or business might require Zoom or Skye meetings. If you have an old webcam like I did recently, you have no idea how they have improved. Both sound and picture are much better.

The better webcams are $100-$200 and mostly out of stock! I have a Logitec that works great, but it is always on my wife’s computer. Are their any decent webcams for less? I looked at a bunch under $40. Most have some problem if you read the reviews closely. This was the only one I saw without a big negative in the reviews. I ordered one, and will post back here the results

Under $40 webcam with good reviews, 1080p, 30 fps (not for gaming)

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

· Download the template files using link on the main page. Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

· Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with associated files.

o Paste charts from the Excel model file using Paste Special, JPEG.

o Type country or state name in the World-likely tab. Data is automatically loaded.

o Put your percentages and dates for unlock in the same tab. Other tabs will copy what they need.

o Top two charts and moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.

o Remaining charts come from World-slow and World-slovac tabs.

o Once you paste these this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.

· Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.

· Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

· If you want to present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source, e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

· Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

· End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

· Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below. Paste Special as HTML.

· If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

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