California
COVID-19 Forecast 
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California
seems to be locked down so tight they run the risk of a homeless epidemic,
or if there are protests then a serious outbreak with overshoot and unnecessary
deaths.
If you think lockdown can’t produce hunger, homelessness and desperation in a
liberal state,
then why was George Floyd passing a counterfeit $20?
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY - POPULATION – Chance of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far
gone before seeking help. Read reviews
and get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
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Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
IHME
PROJECTION
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SUMMARY ·
California is
likely stable. But if there is an
economic catastrophe? ·
California is
locked so tight a rebound is inevitable, even in the early vaccine scenario,
and deaths are greater than our very modest (tailored for Californians)
scenario. No wonder Elon Musk was frustrated with them. What this really
means is that California will stay
locked down and suffer an economic catastrophe (rather than a rebound). ·
A series of very
small steps leaves California nearly locked down,
deaths lower, but also nearly rebound-proof IF there is an EARLY vaccine. ·
Mortality is
trending down rapidly. Our low
recommended caseload postpones most cases until treatment is better. ·
If the vaccine is
late, 75% of Californians get COVID. ·
Travel risk is
modest in summer and fall, improving in winter in our scenario (rebounding
otherwise!). ·
IHME projection at
left seems to correspond to our SLOW and remain locked profile. This has high economic costs over MODERATE,
or if it leads to an unstable and unplanned unlock (protests, for example)
could cost lives. We have learned the
US is *not* protest-proof. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
·
Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
o
Paste charts from
the Excel model file using Paste Special,
JPEG.
o
Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
o
Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
o
Top two charts and
moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
o
Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
o
Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
·
Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be
re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.
·
Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
·
If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
·
Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
·
End with a recommendation,
and your reasoning.
·
Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
·
If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.
DETAILED
INPUTS FOR THIS REGION: (Paste as HTML from Excel)
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