LogoSmall.jpgGermany COVID-19 Forecast   Germany.gif      <<Prev    Next>>     



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Things you might need
if you get Coronavirus:









Pulse Oximeter – People do not realize they are not getting enough oxygen.  They don’t struggle to breathe.  But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone before seeking help.  Read reviews and get one that is reliable and accurate.


These are available in most drug stores, or by mail order:

·         Low priced, good review


Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc.



Germany’s mortality trend is one of the few which do not trend down



MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line





Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature.  Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.


Also available in most drug stores, or by mail order: 

·         Lowest priced 5-star review we could find



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)



SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)




Humidifier – COVID-19 spreads much faster in low humidity.  If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already thought of wearing masks and gloves.  But did you think if using a humidifier?  Be sure to get a good one.


Usually available in department or discount stores, mail order:

This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms, quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may sell out)






Germany is completely stable.

Mortality appears troubling in Germany.  But when you realize the case ratio if around 50 (only half a percent test positivity, deduced from results at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/germany?country=~DEU , then you realize the actual mortality is quite low.

Germany has a high seasonality factor and is currently enjoying low case rates due to summer.  It was when analyzing Germany and Harris County US that I realized how this summer lull pushes susceptible individuals (potential cases) forward into the fall as if through a tunnel, causing even the post vaccine era to be quite explosive and require lockdown.

A rise in cases in the fall is inevitable.  We assume a fall relock will be used to prevent exceeding previous high case loads.  It’s best if the country understands this early and expects it.  I think it does.  I show some additional summer unlock as being very brief, for school in August, followed in a month by a small degree of re-lock, nothing they can’t handle.

There is low to moderate travel risk now or in the fall.  Assuming Germany re-locks as we suggest, the highest risk will be next spring.  Cases will slowly build during the winter and the highest numbers will be in spring.

IHME projection at left does not seem to go past summer provides no projection for fall.

Recommendation:  MODERATE RECOVERY.  Germany’s degree of unlock is just getting started in the last week (see above left, R0 chart).  Assume a few new cases do not alarm them and they stay the course, economic recovery will be moderate, enough that they will make it (see above bar chart).

MINIMUM DEATHS ANALYSIS:  Each profile we redo will have a minimum deaths analysis, if applicable.  These are typically associated with summer seasonality.  While strictly an extreme lockdown (SLOW scenario above left) may have slightly fewer deaths, it is extremely costly.  The profile given is minimum deaths for a MODERATE recovery.  The variational analysis (red and green shaded areas) show that slightly more unlock causes a near term peak and overshoot, while slightly more lockdown causes a peak in the vaccine era and overshoot, unless the country locks down even further while vaccinating.  This is something we don’t feel the public would really go for.




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