Arizona
COVID-19 Forecast 
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Arizona unlock profile at present is identical to Florida. Florida case ratio is even higher than
Arizona.
This has two sides. The high level of
cases means cases will grow in the short run.
The high level of immunity (from the case ratio) means cases will slow faster
than realized.
Florida and Arizona both have low seasonality and will not
have issues in the fall.
|
Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY
|
|
Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone
before seeking help. Read reviews and
get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
|
LIKELY UNLOCK
PACE – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
|
|
Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
|
|
Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
IHME
PROJECTION
|
SUMMARY ·
Arizona is stable.
·
Fatalities in Arizona are lower than expected from early data.
They could be reduced by a full lockdown, but looks like that’s not a
possibility. ·
Economic recovery is moderate to good. ·
There is small
risk of rebound. The risk is an
immediate “bound.” We are assuming a
spontaneous exercise of caution by the public. The
governor is not going to issue any new stay-at-home order, see
article. ·
Travel risk is
moderate to high for the US in summer, about like Texas where I live, and dropping
thereafter. ·
IHME seems to think a fall disaster awaits Arizona. This is not
going to happen. Test positivity data
indicate a case ratio in Arizona of around 20, meaning a higher level of
immunity already existing than IHME is realizing. ·
Observed: FAST RECOVERY. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
·
Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
·
Paste charts from
the Excel model file using ctrl-V. They
will update automatically as long as you have both files open. A bunch of profiles can be done quickly.
o
Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
o
Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
o
Top two charts and
moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
o
Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
o
Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
·
Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, Picture (enhanced metafile).
These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save
the file.
·
Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
·
If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
·
Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
·
End with a
recommendation, and your reasoning.
·
Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
·
If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.