Alabama
COVID-19 Forecast <<Prev Next>>
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* Vaccines * Treatment
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far
gone before seeking help. Read reviews
and get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
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Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
IHME
PROJECTION
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SUMMARY ·
Alabama is
stable. ·
The difference in
fatalities between waiting and unlocking is 450, but only for an early
vaccine. If the vaccine isn’t ready
until next spring, more people die from a waiting strategy. This is a combination of near term cases in
the summer which don’t seem preventable by social distancing, and a likely
rebound in late winter if the vaccine is late. ·
Our previously
dire forecast is revised pleasantly.
Alabama partly unlocked on the first of May, which fooled our model
into thinking the higher social contact rate was the zero base. We have updated our algorithm. Alabama is still dicey this summer, but no
more so than Texas. ·
Mortality is extremely
low and trending down. ·
There is moderate
risk of rebound. There is a small
rebound if they fail to unlock for school on 8/15 to at least the 35% level. ·
Travel risk is moderate
for the US in summer, slightly less in winter. ·
IHME seems to
think the Alabama case ratio is only about 5.
The scenario would be much worse if so, because of very little
immunity building up. If cases peak
and turn down mid-July we are right.
If they keep building, IHME is right. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
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Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
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Paste charts from the
Excel model file using ctrl-V. They will
update automatically as long as you have both files open. A bunch of profiles can be done quickly.
o
Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
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Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
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Top two charts and
moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
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Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
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Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
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Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, Picture (enhanced metafile).
These will have to be re-pasted if you change something before you save
the file.
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Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
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If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
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End with a
recommendation, and your reasoning.
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Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
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If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.
DETAILED
INPUTS FOR THIS REGION: (Paste as HTML from Excel)
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