Texas COVID-19
Forecast 
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Texas is now in the FAST
RECOVERY category, 30% chance of getting sick this summer, but whopping
economic recovery.
See alternative possible return to MODERATE below left.
|
Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks) R0 is slightly above 1.0
so infection grows slowly
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Chance of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone
before seeking help. Read reviews and
get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
|
FAST PACED
UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
|
|
Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
MODERATE UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020) Trying to quash the near term peak and still have school in fall is not a good plan.
|
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
|
|
Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
Texas Medical
Center Data
|
SUMMARY Change [again] in our Texas Forecast ·
Texas is stable. ·
Texas transmission rate only dropped below 1.0 briefly, then resumed the course of slow-rapid case build. Texas has
unlocked, with help from seasonality, but cases are building, and some
re-lock. ·
Mortality is low
and the trend is down. ·
Economic recovery
is better in the moderate scenario, but note that it depends somewhat on a
fall vaccine. ·
Texas is subject
to rebounds, but they are not strong and can be managed. However, near term peak has gone beyond management. It doesn’t seem to be destined to
overshoot, so probably just let it go. ·
Travel risk is high in summer and lower in fall, then rebounding in winter. ·
Observed Profile:
MODERATE RECOVERY, which is happening, apparently, by the collective
actions of the population and government, not dominated by any one
factor. The reason can be taken as the
extremely
high economic recovery, or the
obstinacy of Texans, however you’d like to put it. We believe Texas is tolerant of some case
growth. This will get out of hand over
the next two weeks. Some businesses
re-closed. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
·
Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
o
Paste charts from
the Excel model file using Paste Special,
JPEG.
o
Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
o
Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
o
Top two charts and
moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
o
Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
o
Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
·
Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be
re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.
·
Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
·
If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
·
Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
·
End with a
recommendation, and your reasoning.
·
Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
·
If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.