Harris County
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Harris County is having
the largest case spike in Texas by a substantial margin.
But is it actually at risk of getting out of control? Is it deadly?
The
fixation on case data without insight into where it will turn and the mortality
rate is itself risky.
Harris County seems OK for now but is at more risk of too much lock than unlock. Economic recovery is
poor.
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Things you might need Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks) If R0 is above 1.0
infection grows CASES ARE COMING INTO THE
RANGE WE PROJECTED!
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Chance of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far
gone before seeking help. Read reviews
and get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
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UNLOCK
PROFILE – deaths & economic cost (2nd line) 10% variation in unlock shown, green for
more relock, red for more unlock Notice that more relock in Houston
creates problems next spring Death estimates for each scenario highlighted
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Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter may
sell out) |
Texas Medical
Center Data
Worldometers Data 7/1/20
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SUMMARY ·
Harris County seems to be stable. There are not
massive demonstrations. ·
A RELOCK following an optimistic unlock is clearly in
evidence in recent data. It appears to be successful in capping the active
cases about at present levels. ·
Harris County transmission rate only dropped below 1.0
briefly and marginally, not
consistently. It averaged about 1.1
since mid-May, and jumped wildly in mid-June, in some cases back to the
mid-March levels before full implementation of lockdown. ·
Test positivity is running around 9% implying a case
ratio of 15. ·
Mortality is low. It is mind boggling to compare the low
number of deaths (see chart at left) with an area like NY (state). Harris Co. has one 1/5th the
population and 1/3rd the mortality rate and around 2 times the
case ratio. There have been 14.3 times
more cases in NY but with the lower case ratio only 7 times the percentage of
cases. That would suggest a factor of
5*3*7=105 times lower deaths. But it
is only 87 times lower (currently 361 vs. 31,447), so not as mysterious as it
looks. ·
Economic recovery is poor. The current
death total is about equal to the annual Harris County traffic fatality
deaths (360). The county is not shut
down because of traffic deaths.
Eventual deaths will be more, but nothing that justifies putting
300,000 people out of work for a year, endangering their housing, health,
retirement, etc. ·
Lockdown is very
inefficient. For every case one
postpones to the vaccine period, we still get more than one case at that
time, even with vaccination! ·
Travel risk is moderately high in summer and again next
spring. However, death risk is the lowest we have seen anywhere. ·
Texas medical
center says ICU occupancy is about normal.
We have the capacity for many more cases. ·
Observed Profile:
MODERATE TURNING SLOW RECOVERY. Poor economic
recovery. Compare Houston / Harris
County to Texas. Very different
approach. Why do we display moderate
recovery in red? Because more people
not less are likely to die, and economic recovery is alarmingly bad. |
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