Washington
COVID-19 Forecast 
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Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks) R0 is averaging around 1.0
so infection continues as a threat if any let up
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Chance of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)
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Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone
before seeking help. Read reviews and
get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at
high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line) I zoomed in for detail on
this one. Let us know if this is
clearer, or not.
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Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
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Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves.
But did you think if using a humidifier? Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
IHME
PROJECTION
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SUMMARY ·
The Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone has been removed.
Washington is not stable. ·
Washington has started to ease above 1.0 transmission and so the epidemic might follow a more
moderate course. Depends on whether
this is temporary and they lock back down, or continue in this vein. ·
Mortality is moderate and finally shows a clear downtrend. ·
Washington is subject to fast rebounds that cannot be managed. They will overshoot and cause excess death
in any fully locked scenario followed by a big unlock. ·
Travel risk is modest in summer and rises in fall, then declines if no rebound. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY.
This is really a rather “slow” moderate, tailored for the tastes of
Washingtonians who want lockdown, but cannot manage their cities without some
increase in employment. Is it
enough? Stay tuned to this one. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
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Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
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Paste charts from the
Excel model file using Paste Special,
JPEG.
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Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
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Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
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Top two charts and moderate
chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
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Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
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Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
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Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be
re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.
·
Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
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If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
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End with a
recommendation, and your reasoning.
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Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
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If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.
DETAILED
INPUTS FOR THIS REGION: (Paste as HTML from Excel)
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