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MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2nd line
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
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SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
SLOW
RECOVERY, April 2021 VACCINE:
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ECONOMIC
RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY –
POPULATION – Risk of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY, MODERATE RECOVERY:
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SUMMARY ·
Spain is stable,
but Catalonia is still agitating for independence, see at left. ·
The difference
between MODERATE and SLOW recovery in fatalities is far less than model noise. Basically zero. ·
The Spanish
government is following a strict lockdown.
At the urging of the EU they’ve opened some internal borders as of
June 15th. We don’t have
data on this yet. If a vaccine is
delayed until April, they could increase their death toll 60% due to
overshoot. Some easing is needed. ·
MODERATE scenario
is a classic stair step. No down
side. While there will be more cases
this winter, fewer will be critical. ·
Some may object to
our aggressive assumption cases will be easier to treat if we wait. But without that assumption, there is no
motivation to wait. Vaccine’s
simply aren’t going to arrive soon enough to prevent a catastrophe and
everyone should immediately proceed to herd immunity. (avoiding overshoot) |
