Colorado
COVID-19 Forecast 
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|
Worldwide COVID-19 Status
Things you might need |
TRANSMISSION RATE TRACKING (warns of future outbreaks)
|
ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL
SEASONALITY -
POPULATION – Chance of Dying
TRAVEL
ADVISORY
|
|
Pulse Oximeter – People do not
realize they are not getting enough oxygen.
They don’t struggle to breathe.
But blood oxygen plummets into low 80s or 70s and they are too far gone
before seeking help. Read reviews and
get one that is reliable and accurate.
These are
available in most drug stores, or by mail order: Also useful at high altitude, if you have pneumonia, etc. |
MORTALITY
TREND
|
MODERATELY
PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost (2nd line)
|
|
Non-contact temperature gun – This device is the modern way to take anyone’s temperature. Fast and if you get a good one, accurate.
Also available in
most drug stores, or by mail order: ·
Lowest priced
5-star review we could find |
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
|
SLOW UNLOCK
(vaccine starting April 1, 2021)
|
|
Humidifier – COVID-19
spreads much faster in low humidity.
If you live in a desert, or a cold climate where heating reduces
humidity, and someone in your household is sick, you’ve probably already
thought of wearing masks and gloves. But
did you think if using a humidifier?
Be sure to get a good one.
Usually available
in department or discount stores, mail order: This one has a 5-star rating, for large rooms,
quiet, as low a price as any (I just bought one, in winter
may sell out) |
IHME
PROJECTION (click for
updated version)
|
SUMMARY ·
Colorado is stable. ·
The difference in
fatalities between waiting and unlocking is moderate. Colorado is being too conservative and not
unlocking enough. It is possible to
recover 40% of the potential economic loss of a year of lockdown, being fully open in the summer, ski season
starting 2/15. However, they are
not headed in that direction. If the
summer tourists come and unlock them (our assumption) then they still might
open for skiing on 2/15. ·
We chose an unlock profile that preserves relatively
low risk to travelers in the summer. However, our previous idea that they might
pay a price in the fall and then open for ski season was dubious. However, Colorado’s test positivity is
3.2%. Combined with current cases and
population, the case ratio is high, about 30, so Colorado has higher immunity
already than our previous analysis, and things are a little easier to manage. ·
Mortality is moderately high and not trending down fast enough. ·
There is moderate
risk of rebound. Because of
seasonality, it is easy to keep cases down in the summer. Colorado experiences a major rebound in
winter even in the early waiting-vaccine scenario. If the vaccine is late, 80% of Coloradans
get COVID. ·
IHME projection at
left is consistent with our moderate recovery profile, low summer infections,
turning up in the fall. ·
Recommendation: MODERATE
RECOVERY, with a partial relock in the
fall so that weather-related cases do not happen all at once and induce
overshoot. |
INSTRUCTIONS
FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:
·
Download the
template files using link on the main page.
Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.
·
Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with
associated files.
o
Paste charts from
the Excel model file using Paste Special,
JPEG.
o
Type country or
state name in the World-likely
tab. Data is automatically loaded.
o
Put your percentages
and dates for unlock in the same tab.
Other tabs will copy what they need.
o
Top two charts and
moderate chart from middle and economic chart come from the World-likely tab.
o
Remaining charts
come from World-slow and World-slovac
tabs.
o
Once you paste these
this way, as long as the documents remain open they will update automatically.
·
Paste population,
seasonality and travel advisory from World-likely
tab using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, JPEG). These will have to be
re-pasted if you change something before you save the file.
·
Change the country
or state name at the top of the page.
·
If you want to
present additional information such as IHME projections, copy from the source,
e.g. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
·
Write a custom
summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss
a unique aspect.
·
End with a
recommendation, and your reasoning.
·
Paste the exact
Excel model data you used in the space below.
Paste Special as HTML.
·
If you want to
request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the
home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment,
or follow other instructions I give you.
DETAILED
INPUTS FOR THIS REGION: (Paste as HTML from Excel)
|
State (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓ |
5/15/20 |
6/1/20 |
7/1/20 |
9/1/20 |
2/15/21 |
100% |
unlock
increment |
Data Select (3=World) see W-data
tab |
start date displacement |
Initial
& Unlocked R0 |
Total / Known case ratio |
vaccine
effect%→ ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘ |
70% |
Vents main region |
Season-ality |
Population
main region |
|
Colorado |
5% |
0% |
50% |
35% |
100% |
MODERATE
RECOVERY |
5.0% |
232 |
0 |
2.5 |
20.0 |
230,349 |
12/1/2020 |
3,081 |
25% |
5,758,736 |